Lyon vs Angers Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 2-0 Angers.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Lyon, 23% draw, 15% Angers — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lyon at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Angers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 6T. TessmannM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 7E. NuamahF
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 32Alejandro Gomes RodriguezF
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 33Cluver Sambi MbunguM
- 1Anthony LopesG
- 27L. Rao-LisoaD
- 2C. ArcusD
- 4O. CamaraD
- 21J. LefortD
- 17J. KaluluD
- 14Y. BelkhdimM
- 93H. BelkeblaM
- 8B. van den BoomenM
- 10A. SbaïM
- 9P. PeterF
- 6L. MoutonM
- 7U. SimbakoliF
- 16M. ZingaG
- 20Marius LouërD
- 34M. GernigonD
- 11Djibirin HarounaF
- 24E. BiumlaM
- 26A. BermontM
- 18J. AllevinahF
Form going into Lyon vs Angers
Lyon
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Paris Saint Germain26 October 2026
- W2-1Nice18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
Angers
Ligue 1
- D0-0Lorient25 October 2026
- L2-5Marseille18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Angers vs Lyon
Angers and Lyon have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lyon has won 6 of them to Angers's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lyon won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| Lyon | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Ligue 1Lyon 2–0 Angers - 5 Apr 2026
Ligue 1Angers 0–0 Lyon - 19 Sep 2025
Ligue 1Lyon 1–0 Angers - 17 May 2025
Ligue 1Lyon 2–0 Angers - 7 Dec 2024
Ligue 1Angers 0–3 Lyon - 25 Feb 2023
Ligue 1Angers 1–3 Lyon - 3 Sep 2022
Ligue 1Lyon 5–0 Angers
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Lyon's attack rates 52% above Angers', and Lyon concede 32% fewer than Angers. That gives Lyon the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lyon and Angers
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon beat Angers 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lyon at 62%. The goals: Ernest Nuamah 38' for Lyon, Corentin Tolisso 86' for Lyon. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lyon a 21.8% chance to finish in the top three: 23.8% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.8%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Angers the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 41.7% going in: 32.0% after a win, 39.5% after a draw, 44.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.2%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.