Strasbourg vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Strasbourg, 24% draw, 27% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Strasbourg at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 6I. DoukouréD
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 10G. ReynaM
- 80Gessime YassineF
- 40C. HarderF
- 20M. GodoF
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
- 30J. OrtegaF
- 11S. NanasiM
- 4J. MitchellD
- 26O. KellymanM
- 21P. DiopM
- 16G. AntwiD
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 1P. NardiG
- 15C. MakossoD
- 4A. TuanzebeD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 27L. SyM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 5K. DanoisM
- 22F. OppegårdM
- 21R. FaivreM
- 10D. NamasoM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 23M. DiopG
- 34L. DioubateM
- 20S. DiomandéD
- 47Youssef KhouddaF
- 32R. MandengueD
- 46A. PiedfortM
- 29M. SenayaD
- 13T. SiweD
- 77Aristide ZossouM
Form going into Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
- L0-3away to Rennes25 October 2026
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
Auxerre
Ligue 1
- D1-1Le Mans25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Strasbourg
Auxerre and Strasbourg have met 7 times in the records we hold, Strasbourg has won 5 of them to Auxerre's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Strasbourg won the last one 5–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| Strasbourg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Ligue 1Strasbourg 5–1 Auxerre - 7 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg - 29 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 3–0 Auxerre - 2 Mar 2025
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–1 Strasbourg - 5 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 3–1 Auxerre - 19 Mar 2023
Ligue 1Strasbourg 2–0 Auxerre - 27 Aug 2022
Ligue 1Auxerre 1–0 Strasbourg
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Strasbourg's attack rates 41% above Auxerre's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 0.80 | 1.28 |
| Strasbourg | 1.13 | 1.25 |
Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Auxerre
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Strasbourg beat Auxerre 5–1. The model had made a win for Strasbourg its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dario Essugo 41' for Strasbourg, Martial Godo 55' for Strasbourg, Conrad Harder (penalty) 62' for Strasbourg, Cameron Archer 68' for Auxerre, Gessime Yassine 77' for Strasbourg, Gessime Yassine 85' for Strasbourg. Sent off: Lamfia Dioubaté (Auxerre) 74'. On expected goals it finished 3.15–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Auxerre a 10.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.4% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Strasbourg v Auxerre has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 54% / 22% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Strasbourg's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Strasbourg win49%▼ −5
- Draw24%▲ +2
- Auxerre win27%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.