20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result

MHPArena, Stuttgart
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Full time1 – 1

Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% VfB Stuttgart, 25% draw, 40% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Madrid at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfB Stuttgart6%Draw91%Atletico Madrid3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Maximilian Mittelstädt
17'
⚽Jamie Leweling
36'
45'
🔁Jonathan Davidout: Ademola Lookman
47'
⚽Julián Álvarezassist: Ademola Lookman
🔁Josha Vagnomanout: Lorenz Assignon
52'
64'
Morten Hjulmand
69'
🔁Alejandro Baena Rodríguezout: Johnny Cardoso
🔁Jamie Lewelingout: Ermedin Demirović
72'
78'
🔁Julián Álvarezout: Obed Vargas
78'
🔁Pablo Barrios Rivasout: Robin Le Normand
85'
Diego Pablo Simeone
87'
🔁Giuliano Simeone Baldiniout: Alexander Sørloth
🔁Deniz Undavout: Dženan Pejčinović
87'
🔁Chris Führichout: Leo Sauer
87'

Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

54%Possession46%
18Shots10
5On target3
9Corners4
1.63xG0.91

Goals against chances

VfB Stuttgart1 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Madrid1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
  • 41D. SeimenG
  • 4J. VagnomanD
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 18J. LewelingM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 26D. UndavF
Substitutes
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 28N. NarteyM
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 22L. AssignonD
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 9E. DemirovićF
Coach: S. Hoeneb
Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 14Marcos LlorenteD
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 22Álex GrimaldoD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 8Pablo BarriosM
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 10Álex BaenaM
  • 15J. DavidF
  • 19J. ÁlvarezF
Substitutes
  • 9A. SørlothF
  • 16Arnau OrtizF
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  • 11A. LookmanF
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 7Lee Kang-InM
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 46J. CastilloM
Coach: D. Simeone

Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

VfB Stuttgart

UEFA Champions League

  • W3-0away to Slovan Bratislava14 October 2026
  • W3-1Viking9 September 2026

Atletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-0Manchester United13 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14VfB Stuttgart421174+37
23Atletico Madrid411245-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović40

Atletico Madrid

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Madrid at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jamie Leweling 36' for VfB Stuttgart, Julián Álvarez 47' for Atletico Madrid. Sent off: Morten Hjulmand (Atletico Madrid) 64'. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.91.

How the call on VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. VfB Stuttgart win35%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Atletico Madrid win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.