1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Avellino vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Referee: Kevin Bonacina
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Avellino 2-0 Pisa.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Avellino, 27% draw, 38% Pisa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avellino99%Draw1%Pisa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Di Maggio
26'
45'
🔁Andrea Primassoout: Rosen Bozhinov
45'
🔁Simone Zanonout: Tommaso Marras
⚽Raffaele Russoassist: Martin Palumbo
59'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: Dimitrios Sounas
69'
🔁Walid Cheddiraout: Luca Pandolfi
69'
69'
🔁Emanuele Raoout: Matteo Tramoni
69'
🔁Giuseppe Leoneout: Felipe Loyola
69'
🔁Arturo Calabresiout: Simone Canestrelli
83'
Samuele Angori
🔁Armando Izzoout: Tommaso Cancellotti
87'
🔁Raffaele Russoout: Andrea Favilli
90+6'
🔁Michele Besaggioout: Luca Palmiero
90+7'

Match stats — Avellino vs Pisa

34%Possession66%
18Shots12
6On target3
8Corners4
1.86xG1

Goals against chances

Avellino2 from 1.86 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pisa0 from 1.00 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 14T. BiasciF
  • 29T. CancellottiD
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 77S. Di PaoloF
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 99A. FavilliF
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 6L. PalmieroM
  • 7L. PandolfiF
Coach: A. Nesta
Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 3S. AngoriD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 7M. LérisM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 17E. RaoM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
Substitutes
  • 26F. CoppolaD
  • 4A. CaraccioloD
  • 5S. CanestrelliD
  • 11I. FerrahM
  • 14F. LoyolaD
  • 23T. MarrasF
  • 37A. PetagnaF
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 36G. PiccininiM
Coach: P. Bianco

Form going into Avellino vs Pisa

Avellino

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Virtus Entella27 October 2026
  • L0-1Padova24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026

Pisa

Serie B

  • D3-3Palermo28 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
  • W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Avellino114431611+516
8Pisa114432017+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avellino vs Pisa

  • 17 April 2017Pisa 0–1 AvellinoSerie B
  • 19 November 2016Avellino 1–0 PisaSerie B

Leading scorers: Avellino and Pisa

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo52
  • M. Besaggio30

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Avellino beat Pisa 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 38% and given a win for Avellino 35%. The goals: L. Di Maggio 26' for Avellino, Raffaele Russo 59' for Avellino. On expected goals it finished 1.86–1.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avellino a 5.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.1% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Pisa the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 20.9% going in: 25.3% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.1%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Avellino v Pisa has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Pisa's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Avellino win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Pisa win38%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.