Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction & result
Final score: Stockport County 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Stockport County, 23% draw, 14% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Stockport County at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oliver WhatmuffG
- 25M. JobeD
- 6E. O'ConnellD
- 5E. PyeD
- 30Ethan EnnisM
- 18L. FioriniM
- 10O. NorwoodM
- 2J. Dacres-CogleyM
- 7J. DiamondF
- 19K. WoottonF
- 9B. AndréssonF
- 20J. AdigunM
- 4L. BateM
- 15R. GloverM
- 22M. MandronF
- 23B. OsbornM
- 12T. Wilson-BrownD
- 16H. WoodM
- 39J. BursikG
- 7J. TilleyD
- 17A. YiadomD
- 6R. JohnsonD
- 3S. SeddonD
- 29A. SasuD
- 12A. SmithM
- 5O. HarrisonM
- 21M. HippolyteM
- 9J. StockleyF
- 23H. CornickF
- 20J. McDonnellG
- 10Z. NelsonM
- 33I. OgundereD
- 2S. SessegnonD
- 15F. SimmondsD
- 8C. MaycockM
- 34H. HedgesM
Form going into Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County
League One
- L0-1away to Oxford United27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026
AFC Wimbledon
League One
- D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
- L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
- L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stockport County | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
- 15 April 2026AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 28 March 2026Stockport County 3–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 1 April 2024Stockport County 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 9 September 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 28 January 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 3 September 2022Stockport County 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton102
- J. Diamond63
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 2–1. The model had made a win for Stockport County its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Jayden Stockley 47' for AFC Wimbledon, Jack Diamond 64' for Stockport County, Ethan Ennis 74' for Stockport County. On expected goals it finished 2.85–1.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stockport County a 21.4% chance to finish in the top two: 23.0% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For AFC Wimbledon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 59.1% going in: 50.6% after a win, 56.9% after a draw, 61.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 63% / 23% / 14%: the biggest move is Stockport County's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Stockport County win63%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −2
- AFC Wimbledon win14%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.