31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Wigan vs Bromley League One prediction & result

The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Wigan 3-2 Bromley.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Wigan, 27% draw, 23% Bromley — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wigan at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wigan97%Draw3%Bromley0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Kamari Antonio Grant
⚽Christian Saydeeassist: Connor Barrett
18'
⚽K'Marni Miller
23'
32'
🔁Adam Jacksonout: Omar Sowunmi
45+2'
⚽George Saville
Reggie Walsh
56'
⚽Bradley Burrowesassist: Connor Barrett
58'
🔁Christian Saydeeout: Scott Hogan
64'
🔁Reggie Walshout: Dara James Morgan Costelloe
64'
65'
corey whitely
68'
🔁Mikel Millerout: Richard Taylor
73'
🔁Jodi Jonesout: Ethon Archer
74'
🔁corey whitelyout: John Joshua Mckiernan
74'
🔁Michael Cheekout: Victor Adeboyejo
76'
John Joshua Mckiernan
🔁Max Powerout: Jon Mellish
77'
80'
William Hondermarck
Connor Barrett
82'
83'
Markus Ifill
🔁K'Marni Millerout: Morgan Fox
90+2'
90+4'
George Saville

Match stats — Wigan vs Bromley

61%Possession39%
13Shots17
8On target4
4Corners5
2.42xG1.84

Goals against chances

Wigan3 from 2.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bromley2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wigan 5-3-2
  • 41J. WhitworthG
  • 2C. BarrettD
  • 6J. WeirD
  • 23J. CarragherD
  • 5F. BurnsD
  • 21K'Marni MillerD
  • 8M. PowerM
  • 10R. WalshM
  • 27B. BurrowsM
  • 18Charlie GrayF
  • 38C. SaydeeF
Substitutes
  • 11D. CostelloeF
  • 3M. FoxD
  • 17A. HigginsF
  • 25S. HoganF
  • 22J. MellishD
  • 14R. TrevittM
  • 1J. WalshG
Coach: G. Caldwell
Bromley 4-1-4-1
  • 1G. SmithG
  • 12Marcus Lemar IfillD
  • 45A. JacksonD
  • 21Kamari Antonio GrantD
  • 11M. PinnockD
  • 6G. SavilleM
  • 10J. JonesM
  • 16W. HondermarckM
  • 18C. WhitelyM
  • 19M. MillerM
  • 9M. CheekF
Substitutes
  • 20V. AdeboyejoF
  • 7E. ArcherM
  • 31O. MasonG
  • 28J. McKiernanM
  • 5O. SowunmiD
  • 3R. TaylorD
Coach: Byron Webster

Form going into Wigan vs Bromley

Wigan

League One

  • L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026

Bromley

League One

  • L1-4away to Milton Keynes Dons27 October 2026
  • D1-1Peterborough24 October 2026
  • L0-4Leicester20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bromley did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Bromley conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Wigan154291323-1014
24Bromley132381333-209

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Wigan beat Bromley 3–2. The model had made a win for Wigan its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kamari Antonio Grant 6' for Bromley, Christian Saydee 18' for Wigan, K'Marni Miller 23' for Wigan, George Saville 45+2' for Bromley, Bradley Burrowes 58' for Wigan. On expected goals it finished 2.42–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wigan a 58.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 54.8% after a win, 62.3% after a draw, 64.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.8%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

For Bromley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 92.6% going in: 88.5% after a win, 93.2% after a draw, 94.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.3%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wigan v Bromley has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Wigan's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Wigan win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Bromley win23%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.