Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Toronto FC, 30% draw, 34% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toronto FC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. GavranG
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 25W. ZimmermanD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 14A. CoelloM
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 7T. CorbeanuM
- 10D. MihailovicM
- 20D. SalloiM
- 9J. SargentF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 19K. FranklinD
- 44R. EdwardsD
- 15N. GomisD
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 90L. MorganF
- 38J. GilmanD
- 11D. EtienneF
- 17E. AristizabalF
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 5S. RogersD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 6A. SaletrosM
- 42D. D'AvillaM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 44J. CohenG
- 22M. PinedaD
- 2L. BarrosoD
- 32N. AllenD
- 47S. WilliamsM
- 17R. LodM
- 29D. PorebaM
- 35S. OregelM
- 18J. GomezF
Form going into Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
- D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toronto FC | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 67 | -15 | 39 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for Toronto FC at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maren Haile-Selassie 13' for Chicago Fire, Josh Sargent 27' for Toronto FC, Josh Sargent 38' for Toronto FC, Walker Zimmerman (own goal) 49' for Chicago Fire, Josh Sargent 54' for Toronto FC, Maren Haile-Selassie 58' for Chicago Fire, Robert Lewandowski 63' for Chicago Fire, Derrick Etienne Jr. 90+2' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 1.28–1.92.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.