Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Toronto FC, 30% draw, 34% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
- D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
Chicago Fire
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.