GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: GKS Katowice 5-0 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% GKS Katowice, 25% draw, 43% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Plock at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87Gabriel KobylakG
- 6Lukas KlemenzD
- 4Arkadiusz JędrychD
- 55Pau RestaD
- 23Marcin WasielewskiM
- 68Bartosz WolskiM
- 77Mateusz KowalczykM
- 8Borja GalánM
- 15Eman MarkovićF
- 17Ilia ShkurinF
- 27Bartosz NowakF
- 1Maciej KikolskiG
- 30Alan CzerwińskiD
- 14Marius OlsenD
- 97Erik JirkaM
- 19Kacper ŁukasiakM
- 31Szymon BartlewiczM
- 10Marcel WędrychowskiM
- 22Sebastian MilewskiM
- 7Mateusz WdowiakM
- 12Rafał LeszczyńskiG
- 4Marcus Haglind SangreD
- 35Marcin KamińskiD
- 34Afonso SilvaD
- 21Žan RogeljM
- 17Adam RadwańskiM
- 6Krystian PomorskiM
- 23Patryk KunM
- 11JimeF
- 10Said HamulićF
- 19Dion GallapeniF
- 26Jakub BurekG
- 44Przemysław MisiakD
- 41Marcin WięckowskiD
- 16Fabian HiszpańskiM
- 91Gleb KuchkoM
- 24Nikodem RogowskiD
- 20Łukasz SekulskiF
- 22Kacper BłaszkiewiczF
- 9Deni JurićF
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
GKS Katowice
- L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026
Wisla Plock
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
- 23 August 2026GKS Katowice 5–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 4 April 2026GKS Katowice 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 26 September 2025Wisla Plock 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 23 September 2025GKS Katowice 4–2 Wisla PlockCup
- 24 February 2024Wisla Plock 2–1 GKS KatowiceI Liga
- 11 August 2023GKS Katowice 4–1 Wisla PlockI Liga
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin5 goals1 assists
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.