8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki I Liga prediction & result

Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
Referee: P. Rzucidlo
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Pogoń Siedlce, 31% draw, 34% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Siedlce at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogoń Siedlce97%Draw3%Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽B. Ciepiela (pen)
E. Dzieciol
33'
⚽M. Rosolek (pen)
36'
⚽S. Kobusinskiassist: K. Mis
39'
🔁P. Szurout: D. Jakubik
44'
53'
K. Glogowski
65'
🔁M. Ruszkiewiczout: H. Uzoigwe
65'
🔁K. Kargulewiczout: J. Jedrasik
🔁D. Szuprytowskiout: M. Kizyma
69'
🔁C. Demianiukout: M. Marzec
69'
78'
🔁J. Zbrogout: J. Niewiadomski
78'
🔁K. Glogowskiout: H. Turski
83'
O. Koprowski
86'
🔁A. Oshafiout: D. Jaron
90'
J. Niewiadomski

Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga

  • D1-1Ruch Chorzów3 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Odra Opole25 October 2026
  • L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
  • L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • L0-1Stal Mielec30 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ruch Chorzów25 October 2026
  • L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Pogoń Siedlce scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Pogoń Siedlce failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pogoń Siedlce conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • 11 July 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Pogoń SiedlceFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–2 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 4 October 2025Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
  • 17 February 2024Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 February 2023Pogoń Siedlce 3–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 July 2022Pogoń Siedlce 2–0 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Pogoń Siedlce beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–1. The model had made a win for Pogoń Siedlce its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: B. Ciepiela (penalty) 16' for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, M. Rosolek (penalty) 36' for Pogoń Siedlce, S. Kobusinski 39' for Pogoń Siedlce.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Siedlce a 33.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.5% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 39.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.5%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 14.8% going in: 18.7% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pogoń Siedlce v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Pogoń Siedlce win35%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.