7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa I Liga prediction & result

Referee: P. Horozaniecki
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Warta Poznań 0-3 Polonia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Warta Poznań, 28% draw, 29% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Warta Poznań at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Warta Poznań0%Draw1%Polonia Warszawa99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
S. Kowalczyk
F. Rejczyk
21'
34'
⚽T. Makowski
40'
⚽G. Barkovskiyassist: I. Durmus
🔁A. Mlynarczykout: K. Szymanek
46'
🔁F. Rejczykout: K. Lysiak
46'
🔁J. Kendziaout: M. Stefaniak
55'
🔁M. Smoczynskiout: S. Steblecki
55'
D. Avdeev
60'
61'
🔁I. Durmusout: E. Terpilowski
76'
🔁T. Makowskiout: K. Tabara
76'
🔁D. Vegaout: O. Wojciechowski
82'
🔁S. Kowalczykout: K. Kostorz
🔁D. Avdeevout: T. Wojcinowicz
85'
T. Wojcinowicz
86'
88'
⚽K. Tabaraassist: K. Kostorz
90+2'
D. Olafsson

Line-ups

Warta Poznań
Coach: Maciej Tokarczyk
Polonia Warszawa
Coach: Piotr Stokowiec

Form going into Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa

Warta Poznań

I Liga

  • D1-1away to Podbeskidzie31 October 2026
  • L0-1ŁKS Łódź26 October 2026
  • W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026

Polonia Warszawa

I Liga

  • D1-1away to ŁKS Łódź2 November 2026
  • D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Warta Poznań failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Warta Poznań scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Warta Poznań conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Polonia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Polonia Warszawa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Warta Poznań146172020019
1Polonia Warszawa147432315+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa

  • 15 March 2025Warta Poznań 1–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
  • 23 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 2–0 Warta PoznańI Liga

The result against the call

Polonia Warszawa won 3–0 at Warta Poznań. The model had leaned towards a win for Warta Poznań at 43% and given a win for Polonia Warszawa 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Makowski 34' for Polonia Warszawa, G. Barkovskiy 40' for Polonia Warszawa, K. Tabara 88' for Polonia Warszawa.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Warta Poznań a 10.5% chance to finish in the top two: 13.4% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

For Polonia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 29.4% going in: 36.9% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 24.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.9%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Warta Poznań v Polonia Warszawa has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Warta Poznań's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Warta Poznań win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Polonia Warszawa win29%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.