Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Polonia Bytom 1-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Polonia Bytom, 24% draw, 31% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Polonia Bytom at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
Polonia Bytom
I Liga
- W3-0Odra Opole2 November 2026
- W2-1away to Unia Skierniewice24 October 2026
- W3-2Chrobry Głogów17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
Lechia Gdansk
I Liga
- W3-2Unia Skierniewice31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Bytom won every one of these 4 matches.
- Polonia Bytom scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Polonia Bytom had three goals or more.
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Polonia Bytom | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Polonia Bytom beat Lechia Gdansk 1–0. The model had made a win for Polonia Bytom its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: L. Zielinski 44' for Polonia Bytom.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Polonia Bytom a 17.9% chance to finish in the top two: 22.0% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.0%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Lechia Gdansk the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 27.1% going in: 34.4% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 22.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.0%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Polonia Bytom v Lechia Gdansk has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 42% / 24% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 24% / 31%: the biggest move is Polonia Bytom's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Polonia Bytom win45%▲ +3
- Draw24%=
- Lechia Gdansk win31%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.