24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec
Referee: D. Krumplewski
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Stal Mielec 0-0 Chrobry Głogów.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Stal Mielec, 26% draw, 35% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stal Mielec at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Mielec5%Draw91%Chrobry Głogów4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

I. Puerto
55'
56'
S. Strozik
60'
M. Kozajda
64'
🔁K. Ibe-Tortiout: A. Sadiku
64'
🔁A. Bukowskiout: R. Bak
66'
A. Sadiku
🔁T. Gmurout: E. Ziobron
68'
🔁M. Wyparloout: P. Kruszelnicki
68'
74'
🔁A. Rybakout: W. Staszak
🔁M. Cebulaout: S. Oure
79'
🔁K. Cybulskiout: M. Domanski
79'
P. Tupaj
82'
🔁H. Matyniaout: K. Getinger
84'
F. Gerbowski
85'
90+1'
🔁Y. Sharaburaout: M. Bartolewski

Line-ups

Stal Mielec
Coach: Damian Skiba
Chrobry Głogów
Coach: Lukasz Becella

Form going into Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga

  • L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
  • L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Stal Mielec145451927-819
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów

  • 17 April 2026Chrobry Głogów 2–1 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 3 October 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 14 July 2020Stal Mielec 1–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 27 October 2019Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 28 April 2019Stal Mielec 5–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 13 October 2018Chrobry Głogów 0–0 Stal MielecI Liga

The result against the call

Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Stal Mielec at 39% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stal Mielec a 41.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.4% after a win, 43.3% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Chrobry Głogów the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.4% going in: 11.6% after a win, 16.5% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.5%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stal Mielec v Chrobry Głogów has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is Stal Mielec's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Stal Mielec win39%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Chrobry Głogów win35%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.