Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Puszcza Niepołomice, 27% draw, 36% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Puszcza Niepołomice at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga
- L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026
Lechia Gdansk
I Liga
- W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk
- 29 October 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 1–3 Lechia GdanskCup
- 23 February 2025Lechia Gdansk 0–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceEkstraklasa
- 16 August 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 4–1 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 9 February 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 3–1 Lechia GdanskCup
The result against the call
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Lechia Gdansk 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Puszcza Niepołomice at 37%. The goals: A. Trubeha 60' for Puszcza Niepołomice, K. Kasolik 88' for Puszcza Niepołomice, A. Shakh 90+4' for Lechia Gdansk.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puszcza Niepołomice a 36.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.0% after a win, 37.4% after a draw, 42.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.0%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.
For Lechia Gdansk the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 29.2% going in: 35.5% after a win, 27.2% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.4%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Puszcza Niepołomice's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Puszcza Niepołomice win37%▲ +7
- Draw27%=
- Lechia Gdansk win36%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.