24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski, Skierniewice
Referee: P. Horozaniecki
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Unia Skierniewice 1-2 Polonia Bytom.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Unia Skierniewice, 27% draw, 34% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Unia Skierniewice at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Unia Skierniewice0%Draw3%Polonia Bytom97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

E. Wolinski
29'
J. Straus
36'
54'
M. Labojko
⚽J. Bieronskiassist: J. Straus
60'
63'
J. Szymanski
66'
🔁K. Orlikout: C. Pena
66'
🔁K. Wojtyraout: D. Rumin
66'
🔁M. Labojkoout: D. Konieczny
🔁D. Gaskaout: K. Toporkiewicz
67'
🔁A. Burkiewiczout: S. Dudek
67'
76'
⚽G. Szymusik
🔁M. Szmydout: J. Kaminski
80'
K. Toporkiewicz
81'
🔁J. Mierzwaout: L. Wolsztynski
83'
🔁B. Bidaout: J. Czarnecki
83'
87'
G. Szymusik
89'
⚽D. Rumin
90+2'
🔁L. Zielinskiout: K. Michalski
⚽M. Stepien (pen)assist: M. Stepien
90+5'

Line-ups

Unia Skierniewice
Coach: Kamil Socha
Polonia Bytom
Coach: Konrad Gerega

Form going into Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

Polonia Bytom

I Liga

  • W3-2Chrobry Głogów17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614
3Polonia Bytom146622420+424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Polonia Bytom won 2–1 at Unia Skierniewice. The model had leaned towards a win for Unia Skierniewice at 39% and given a win for Polonia Bytom 34%. The goals: J. Bieronski 60' for Unia Skierniewice, G. Szymusik 76' for Polonia Bytom, D. Rumin 89' for Polonia Bytom. Sent off: E. Wolinski (Unia Skierniewice) 29'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Unia Skierniewice a 49.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 41.8% after a win, 51.1% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.2%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

For Polonia Bytom the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.1% going in: 4.2% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.2%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.