24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia
Referee: G. Kawalko
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Arka Gdynia 3-1 Nieciecza.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arka Gdynia, 28% draw, 37% Nieciecza — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nieciecza at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arka Gdynia99%Draw1%Nieciecza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Kocylaassist: M. Ambrosiewicz
11'
⚽V. Gutkovskisassist: K. Lipkowski
17'
32'
K. Kubica
A. Sidibe
35'
⚽M. Ambrosiewicz
40'
46'
🔁D. Hilbrychtout: K. Zapolnik
46'
🔁L. Masoeroout: M. Synos
51'
A. Putivtsev
55'
⚽K. Zapolnikassist: R. Kurzawa
🔁A. Sidibeout: D. Kun
57'
🔁F. Walusout: M. Milewski
57'
🔁D. Arndtout: J. Grobelny
67'
81'
🔁S. Dabrowskiout: D. Biniek
🔁V. Gutkovskisout: E. Rama
82'
🔁D. Kocylaout: N. Dziegielewski
83'
K. Solecki
83'
85'
🔁A. Putivtsevout: A. Zarowny
S. Szota
88'

Line-ups

Arka Gdynia
Coach: Tomasz Grzegorczyk
Nieciecza
Coach: Marcin Brosz

Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza

Arka Gdynia

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026

Nieciecza

I Liga

  • W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218
6Nieciecza146442220+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza

  • 18 May 2026Arka Gdynia 2–3 NiecieczaEkstraklasa
  • 21 November 2025Nieciecza 2–0 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
  • 4 May 2025Arka Gdynia 2–1 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 26 October 2024Nieciecza 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 11 December 2023Nieciecza 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 21 July 2023Arka Gdynia 2–2 NiecieczaI Liga

The result against the call

Arka Gdynia beat Nieciecza 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nieciecza at 37% and given a win for Arka Gdynia 35%. The goals: D. Kocyla 11' for Arka Gdynia, V. Gutkovskis 17' for Arka Gdynia, M. Ambrosiewicz 40' for Arka Gdynia, K. Zapolnik 55' for Nieciecza.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arka Gdynia a 29.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.6% after a win, 31.1% after a draw, 34.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.6%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

For Nieciecza the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 27.3% going in: 33.0% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Arka Gdynia's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Arka Gdynia win35%▼ −8
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Nieciecza win37%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.