Rochdale
vs
Barnet
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rochdale 1–2 Barnet
The model makes it 24% Rochdale, 23% draw, 53% Barnet — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Rochdale 1.31, Barnet 2.21.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Barnet are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rochdale's rating is built from 15 League Two matches and Barnet's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Rochdale are 22nd on 15 points from 15 games; Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Rochdale have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to York.
- Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crewe.
- Last 6 meetings: Barnet 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Rochdale 0–4 Barnet.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rochdale vs Barnet
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rochdale vs Barnet
Rochdale
League Two
- L0-1York14 November 2026
- L2-4away to Port Vale31 October 2026
- L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
Barnet
League Two
- D1-1away to Crewe31 October 2026
- W3-1York27 October 2026
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
What these results say
- Rochdale did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rochdale had three goals or more.
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 15 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rochdale
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 46% today
Barnet
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 37% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Barnet
- 22 February 2025Rochdale 0–4 BarnetNational League
- 26 October 2024Barnet 2–1 RochdaleNational League
- 5 March 2024Barnet 2–0 RochdaleNational League
- 16 September 2023Rochdale 4–2 BarnetNational League
- 23 February 2013Barnet 0–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 1 September 2012Rochdale 2–0 BarnetLeague Two
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Barnet
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rochdale a 0% chance of the title and Barnet 36.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Rochdale against 2.21 for Barnet. Rochdale's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/2.07 for Barnet.
How the model reaches 53% for Barnet to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Rochdale's ratings add 10 points and Barnet's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Rochdale's ratings42%+10
- Barnet's ratings53%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rochdale at home · Barnet away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Rochdale 15, Barnet 13.
Rochdale score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Barnet have let in 3 there.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Rochdale have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rochdale
- at Cheltenham1 Dec · League Twowin 26%
- at Exeter City12 Dec · League Twowin 19%
- vs Bristol Rovers19 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Rotherham26 Dec · League Twowin 29%
Barnet
- vs Rotherham1 Dec · League Twowin 63%
- vs Northampton12 Dec · League Twowin 48%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.