League C - 6 · 16 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kazakhstan vs Slovakia UEFA Nations League prediction

Astana Arena, Astana
Referee: Aliyar Agayev

Our model says: Kazakhstan 0–2 Slovakia

The model makes it 18% Kazakhstan, 24% draw, 58% Slovakia — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).

Expected goals: Kazakhstan 0.91, Slovakia 2.02.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Slovakia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Kazakhstan's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Slovakia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Kazakhstan are bottom on 2 points from 5 games; Slovakia are top on 11 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
  • Kazakhstan have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Moldova.
  • Slovakia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Faroe Islands.
  • Last 3 meetings: Kazakhstan 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Slovakia 2–1 Kazakhstan.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kazakhstan vs Slovakia

52%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kazakhstan win Draw Slovakia win
  1. 0–211%
  2. 1–110%
  3. 0–110%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–37%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Kazakhstan first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Slovakia at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kazakhstan vs Slovakia

Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Moldova13 November 2026
  • D2-2Faroe Islands6 October 2026
  • L1-2Moldova2 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

Slovakia

UEFA Nations League

  • D2-2Faroe Islands13 November 2026
  • W4-0away to Moldova6 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands2 October 2026
  • W2-1Kazakhstan29 September 2026
  • W2-0Moldova26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Kazakhstan did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Kazakhstan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Kazakhstan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Slovakia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Slovakia scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kazakhstan502369-32
1Slovakia5320114+711

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Kazakhstan vs Slovakia

  • 29 September 2026Slovakia 2–1 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
  • 13 June 2022Kazakhstan 2–1 SlovakiaUEFA Nations League
  • 6 June 2022Slovakia 0–1 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League

How the call on Kazakhstan v Slovakia has moved

First published on 2 Nov at 19% / 25% / 56% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 18% / 24% / 58%: the biggest move is Slovakia's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kazakhstan win18%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Slovakia win58%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kazakhstan Slovakia
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.1
1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.94
0.91 Model expected goals (this match) 2.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slovakia the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Kazakhstan against 2.02 for Slovakia. Kazakhstan's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.94 for Slovakia.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 58% for Slovakia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovakia to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Kazakhstan's ratings add 12 points and Slovakia's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Kazakhstan's ratings46%+12
  4. Slovakia's ratings58%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.