15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Portsmouth vs QPR Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Portsmouth 1-3 QPR.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Portsmouth, 28% draw, 32% QPR — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portsmouth at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth0%Draw1%QPR99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Devlinassist: E. Adams
15'
20'
🔁B. Kemperout: K. Adamson
25'
R. Edwards
33'
⚽I. Chairassist: H. Vale
40'
⚽K. Saitoassist: I. Chair
45+2'
⚽I. Chairassist: A. S. Mbengue
🔁L. Brooke-Smithout: R. Kavuma McQueen
46'
58'
🔁K. Saitoout: P. Smyth
58'
🔁K. Pokuout: G. Kamara
🔁A. Kamaraout: J. Murphy
65'
🔁Z. Swansonout: B. Arthur
72'
🔁R. Pooleout: Marezi
72'
74'
🔁A. S. Mbengueout: J. Varane
74'
🔁R. Burrellout: A. Lloyd
🔁E. Adamsout: O. Bailey
83'

Match stats — Portsmouth vs QPR

54%Possession46%
16Shots13
6On target6
7Corners3
2xG2.04

Goals against chances

Portsmouth1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth
QPR3 from 2.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Nicolas SchmidG
  • 24Terry DevlinD
  • 5Regan PooleD
  • 6Conor ShaughnessyD
  • 22Zak SwansonD
  • 19Rocco Robert SheinM
  • 38Ebou AdamsM
  • 11Abu KamaraM
  • 10Adrian SegečićM
  • 28Luke Brooke-SmithM
  • 9Colby BishopF
Substitutes
  • 25Ryan Kavuma-McQueenF
  • 23Josh MurphyM
  • 2Benjamin ArthurD
  • 29Marko MilovanovićF
  • 27Odin BaileyM
  • 31Daniel BielicaG
  • 55Madiodio DiaD
  • 16Luke Le RouxM
  • 8John SwiftM
Coach: John Mousinho
QPR 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pierce CharlesG
  • 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
  • 3Jimmy DunneD
  • 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
  • 12Boy KemperD
  • 20Harvey ValeM
  • 5Ronnie EdwardsM
  • 17Kwame PokuM
  • 10Ilias ChairM
  • 14Koki SaitoM
  • 16Rumarn BurrellF
Substitutes
  • 2Kealey AdamsonD
  • 11Paul SmythF
  • 18Glen KamaraM
  • 40Jonathan VaraneM
  • 15Alfie LloydF
  • 13Calum WardG
  • 4Liam MorrisonD
  • 23Isak Alemayehu MulugetaM
  • 22Richard KoneF
Coach: Julien Stephan

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Portsmouth621378-17
5QPR733185+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs QPR

  • 15 August 2026Portsmouth 1–3 QPRChampionship
  • 21 March 2026QPR 6–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 26 December 2025Portsmouth 1–1 QPRChampionship
  • 22 February 2025Portsmouth 2–1 QPRChampionship
  • 19 October 2024QPR 1–2 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 7 July 2021QPR 2–1 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.