15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Norwich vs West Brom Championship prediction & result

Carrow Road, Norwich
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Norwich 1-2 West Brom.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Norwich, 26% draw, 26% West Brom — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Norwich at 48% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norwich0%Draw1%West Brom99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
N. Phillips
48'
O. Diakite
68'
🔁H. Whitwellout: J. Molumby
68'
🔁F. Myhreout: R. Nzingoula
🔁A. Slimaneout: O. Schwartau
72'
🔁P. Maghomaout: P. A. Diallo
72'
75'
⚽A. Heggeboassist: J. Morgan
🔁A. Brooksout: J. Wright
79'
🔁M. Toureout: M. Kvistgaarden
86'
🔁P. Mattssonout: S. Field
86'
87'
⚽J. Morganassist: M. O'Leary
⚽M. Kvistgaarden
90+1'
90+1'
🔁J. Morganout: B. Stewart
90+5'
🔁O. Diakiteout: K. Bielik
90+5'
🔁N. Galvesout: C. Mepham

Match stats — Norwich vs West Brom

54%Possession46%
20Shots8
7On target4
8Corners2
2.72xG1.45

Goals against chances

Norwich1 from 2.72 xGless than the chances were worth
West Brom2 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 1Vladan KovačevićG
  • 35Kellen FisherD
  • 6Harry DarlingD
  • 33José CórdobaD
  • 14Ben ChriseneD
  • 23Kenny McLeanM
  • 7Pelle MattssonM
  • 11Andre BrooksM
  • 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
  • 25Paris MaghomaM
  • 21Mohamed TouréF
Substitutes
  • 19Papa Amadou DialloF
  • 29Oscar SchwartauF
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 26Sam FieldM
  • 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
  • 32Daniel GrimshawG
  • 28Bruno AlvesD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 3Jack StaceyD
Coach: Philippe Clement
West Brom 4-4-2
  • 1Max O'LearyG
  • 25Nolan GalvesD
  • 3Nathaniel PhillipsD
  • 6George CampbellD
  • 4Callum StylesD
  • 29Harry WhitwellM
  • 17Ousmane DiakitéM
  • 7Felix Horn MyhreM
  • 21Isaac PriceM
  • 19Aune Selland HeggebøF
  • 11Jimmy MorganF
Substitutes
  • 20Rabby NzingoulaM
  • 8Jayson MolumbyM
  • 2Chris MephamD
  • 5Krystian BielikD
  • 9Barney StewartF
  • 13Matt IngramG
  • 28Alex WilliamsD
  • 22Conor TownsendD
  • 10Mikey JohnstonF

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Norwich7304131309
4West Brom7421107+314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Norwich vs West Brom

  • 15 August 2026Norwich 1–2 West BromChampionship
  • 14 February 2026Norwich 3–1 West BromFA Cup
  • 20 January 2026West Brom 0–5 NorwichChampionship
  • 1 October 2025Norwich 0–1 West BromChampionship
  • 29 March 2025Norwich 1–0 West BromChampionship
  • 23 November 2024West Brom 2–2 NorwichChampionship

Leading scorers: Norwich and West Brom

Norwich

  • M. Touré4 goals

West Brom

  • J. Morgan3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.