15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Middlesbrough vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result

Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Middlesbrough 2-1 Lincoln.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Middlesbrough, 15% draw, 10% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Middlesbrough at 75% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Middlesbrough8%Draw90%Lincoln2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽A. Reachassist: T. Darikwa
36'
F. Draper
59'
🔁F. Draperout: T. Olaofe
59'
🔁D. Jefferiesout: R. Street
⚽W. Lankshear
62'
🔁A. Kanteout: R. McGree
63'
🔁L. Castledineout: M. Peart-Harris
63'
🔁Neto Borgesout: M. Arfsten
63'
🔁K. Josephout: J. Sarmiento
71'
71'
🔁B. Houseout: R. Hackett-Fairchild
89'
T. Olaofe
⚽W. Lankshearassist: R. McGree
90+1'
90+2'
🔁A. Reachout: T. Bayliss
90+2'
🔁T. Darikwaout: A. Coubis
🔁M. Whittakerout: A. Jones
90+2'

Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Lincoln

77%Possession23%
22Shots10
7On target2
5Corners5
2.22xG0.62

Goals against chances

Middlesbrough2 from 2.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lincoln1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2
  • 1Radek VitekG
  • 2Callum BrittainD
  • 12Luke AylingD
  • 29Adilson MalandaD
  • 30Neto BorgesD
  • 42Abdoulaye KantéM
  • 6Sebastian BerhalterM
  • 11Morgan WhittakerM
  • 19Leo CastledineM
  • 7Will LankshearF
  • 22Kyle JosephF
Substitutes
  • 17Maximilian ArfstenD
  • 14Myles Peart-HarrisM
  • 8Riley McGreeM
  • 16Jeremy SarmientoF
  • 5Alfie JonesD
  • 31Solomon BrynnG
  • 25George EdmundsonD
  • 46Finlay CartwrightM
  • 44Cruz IbehM
Coach: Kim Hellberg
Lincoln 5-3-2
  • 1George WickensG
  • 2Tendayi DarikwaD
  • 22Thomas HamerD
  • 25Deji ElereweD
  • 6Ryley TowlerD
  • 3Adam ReachD
  • 16Dom JefferiesM
  • 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
  • 14Conor McGrandlesM
  • 34Freddie DraperF
  • 18Ben HouseF
Substitutes
  • 19Isaac OlaofeF
  • 17Robert StreetF
  • 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildM
  • 4Andrei CoubișD
  • 8Tom BaylissM
  • 46Joe GauciG
  • 23Joshua HonohanD
  • 20Callum ElderD
  • 10Mason MeliaF

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Middlesbrough74211410+414
8Lincoln732266011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Lincoln

  • 15 August 2026Middlesbrough 2–1 LincolnChampionship

Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Lincoln

Middlesbrough

  • W. Lankshear6 goals

Lincoln

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.