Charlton vs Derby Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 2-1 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Charlton, 26% draw, 27% Derby — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlton at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Derby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25William MannionG
- 20Danny McNamaraD
- 5Lloyd JonesD
- 12Billy KoumetioD
- 17Amari'i BellD
- 6Conor CoventryM
- 15Nathaniel ChalobahM
- 7Tyreece CampbellM
- 14Sonny CareyM
- 9Karlan GrantM
- 24Matt GoddenF
- 19Millenic AlliF
- 11Miles LeaburnF
- 26Joe Rankin-CostelloM
- 18Ivan MesíkD
- 28Collins SichenjeD
- 21Tiernan BrooksG
- 32Alan NwambaD
- 8Harvey KnibbsM
- 30Robert ApterM
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
- 23Joe WardD
- 6Sondre LangåsD
- 28Dion SandersonD
- 3Craig ForsythD
- 18Charlie TaylorD
- 29Oscar FrauloM
- 27Lewis TravisM
- 8Bobby ClarkM
- 9Carlton MorrisF
- 11Sammie SzmodicsF
- 20Alex MowattM
- 33Corey Blackett-TaylorF
- 10Rhian BrewsterF
- 22Max JohnstonD
- 15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
- 31Josh VickersG
- 24Ryan NyambeD
- 37Owen EamesM
- 13Filip BilbijaM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Derby
- 15 August 2026Charlton 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 20 January 2026Charlton 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 30 September 2025Derby 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 27 February 2024Derby 1–2 CharltonLeague One
- 3 February 2024Charlton 0–1 DerbyLeague One
- 18 February 2023Derby 2–0 CharltonLeague One
Leading scorers: Charlton and Derby
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals
Derby
- B. Clark2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.