Atlante FC vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 1-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlante FC, 28% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlante FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. JimenezG
- 29W. PortalesD
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirosD
- 27A. EscobarD
- 16D. Gonzalez
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 30Martin SarrafioreM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7Jhojan JulioF
- 33Garcia JordanG
- 3L. SanchezD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 32D. O. Bagui TobarD
- 37W. ClarD
- 25M. FernandezM
- 10O. VazquezM
- 15J. CharcopaF
- 20G. AdameM
- 23O. GarciaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 25P. BellonD
- 5S. VegasD
- 20R. EcheverriaM
- 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 203J. LaraM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 11I. DiazF
- 181I. MartinezG
- 185C. Mora
- 4B. ColulaD
- 26S. ReyesM
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 15S. FierroM
- 22S. SantosM
- 16J. CortizoM
Form going into Atlante FC vs Leon
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Leon
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Leon
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlante FC and Leon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Alvarado (penalty) 81' for Leon, Martin Sarrafiore 90' for Atlante FC. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.43.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.