17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk Premier League prediction & result

Lokomotiv Stadium, Baranovichi
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Baranovichi 0-1 FC Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Baranovichi, 29% draw, 40% FC Vitebsk — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Vitebsk at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baranovichi0%Draw3%FC Vitebsk97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yegor Lapun
34'
49'
⚽Mikhail Bashilovassist: Yevhen Protasov
🔁Zakhar Gitselevout: Vadim Balbukh
60'
65'
🔁Roman Minaevout: vlad anikeev
65'
🔁Daniil Pesnyakout: Zakhar Chervyakov
72'
🔁Artem Gurenkoout: Marin Zgomba
72'
🔁Roman·Lisovskyout: Sergey Tikhonovskiy
🔁Vasili Vasilenkoout: Timofey Tkachev
79'
🔁Yegor Lapunout: Alibi Tuzakbayev
79'
81'
🔁Evgeniy Novykhout: Gleb minkevich
🔁E. Torekulout: Semen Penchuk
84'
🔁Valeriy·Potorochaout: Mikhail Bondarenko
84'
Artem Bruy
90+1'

Match stats — Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk

52%Possession48%
4Shots1
2On target0
2Corners1

Line-ups

Baranovichi 4-2-3-1
  • 12D. ShapkoG
  • 11N. RyabykhD
  • 19A. BruyD
  • 33Kirill MuzychenkoD
  • 23V. VasilenkoD
  • 9E. LapunM
  • 88Z. GitselevM
  • 96V. PotorochaM
  • 10F. LebedevM
  • 77M. ArtyukhM
  • 45Ersultan TorekulF
Substitutes
  • 8V. BalbukhM
  • 22M. BondarenkoM
  • 93A. DresmanisG
  • 5V. FedotovD
  • 4V. KarpenyaD
  • 29S. PenchukM
  • 34A. PetrenkoM
  • 7T. PukhovM
  • 97T. TkachevD
FC Vitebsk 4-4-2
  • 50N. GoyloG
  • 17E. NovykhD
  • 15M. KuntsevichD
  • 6K. RodionovD
  • 22S. EgorovD
  • 11A. GurenkoM
  • 88E. FrazzoniM
  • 30Mikhail BashilovM
  • 10Y. ProtasovM
  • 77R. MinaevF
  • 7R. LisovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 86M. ŽgombaM
  • 26S. TikhonovskiyM
  • 66A. RadinF
  • 1I. NovichkovG
  • 67G. MinkevichF
  • 24Ivan KravchenkoD
  • 20E. KrasnovM
  • 14Z. ChervyakovF
  • 8A. AnufrievM
Coach: S. Gurenko

Form going into Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk

Baranovichi

Premier League

  • L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026

FC Vitebsk

Premier League

  • D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Baranovichi2887133045-1531
7FC Vitebsk28117103027+340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk

  • 31 May 2026FC Vitebsk 2–3 BaranovichiPremier League
  • 24 September 2023Baranovichi 0–4 FC Vitebsk1. Division
  • 20 May 2023FC Vitebsk 0–1 Baranovichi1. Division
  • 29 August 2020Baranovichi 0–6 FC VitebskCoppa

The result against the call

FC Vitebsk won 1–0 at Baranovichi. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Vitebsk at 40%. The goal: Mikhail Bashilov 49' for FC Vitebsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baranovichi a 4.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.1% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Baranovichi v FC Vitebsk has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is FC Vitebsk's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Baranovichi win31%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. FC Vitebsk win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.