24 October 2026, 07:30 UTC

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Super League prediction & result

Wuhan Sports Centre, Wuhan
Referee: Haixin Li, China
Full time3 – 5

Final score: Wuhan Three Towns 3-5 Shandong Luneng.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Wuhan Three Towns, 24% draw, 43% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shandong Luneng at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wuhan Three Towns0%Draw5%Shandong Luneng95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Memet Imranassist: Guilherme Madruga
⚽He Guanassist: A. Leautey
12'
18'
⚽Cryzanassist: V. Qazaishvili
Zheng Haoqian
24'
27'
⚽Cryzan (pen)
Xu Haofeng
35'
46'
🔁Memet Imranout: Y. Li
46'
🔁Mijit Mewlanout: R. Merkies
🔁Zheng Haoqianout: J. Cadiz
46'
He Guan
51'
🔁Xu Haofengout: Li Shenyuan
59'
66'
🔁Xie Wennengout: Yang Ruiqi
66'
🔁Chen Puout: Shi Songchen
⚽J. Cadiz (pen)
67'
🔁Zhang Xiaobinout: Long Wei
67'
75'
Shi Songchen
⚽J. Cadizassist: A. Leautey
75'
Li Shenyuan
76'
79'
🔁Peng Xiaoout: Chen Zeshi
83'
⚽V. Qazaishviliassist: Cryzan
🔁J. Xiongout: Wang Jinxian
84'
90+3'
⚽V. Qazaishviliassist: Liu Yang

Match stats — Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng

59%Possession41%
14Shots18
5On target9
1Corners5

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns 4-4-2
  • 31Guo JiayuG
  • 23Ming TianD
  • 2Guan HeD
  • 11Ang LiD
  • 4Xu HaofengD
  • 50Antoine LeauteyM
  • 18Xiaobing ZhangM
  • 20Adriano FirminoM
  • 10Kilian BevisM
  • 21Jizheng XiongF
  • 9Zheng HaoqianF
Substitutes
  • 29Jhonder CádizF
  • 5Shenyuan LiD
  • 6Wei LongM
  • 8Jinxian WangM
  • 55Li ZihaoG
  • 22Jingqi FangG
  • 28Denny Wang YiD
  • 13Kaimu ZhengM
  • 15Zhechao ChenD
Shandong Luneng 3-4-2-1
  • 14Dalei WangG
  • 3Peng XiaoD
  • 23Pedro ÁlvaroD
  • 11Yang LiuD
  • 28Maiwulang MijitiM
  • 38Memet ImranM
  • 8Guilherme MadrugaM
  • 29Chen PuM
  • 7Wenneng XieF
  • 10Valeri QazaishviliF
  • 9CryzanF
Substitutes
  • 22Yuanyi LiM
  • 17Raphaël MerkiesF
  • 15Songchen ShiD
  • 2Yang RuiqiD
  • 37Zeshi ChenM
  • 1Yu JinyongG
  • 36Qiwei LiuG
  • 32Qihang SunG
  • 5Zheng ZhengD

Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng

Wuhan Three Towns

Super League

  • L1-3Shanghai Shenhua18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Shenyang Urban11 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026

Shandong Luneng

Super League

  • W5-0Hangzhou Greentown17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long11 October 2026
  • D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wuhan Three Towns30512134557-1222
4Shandong Luneng3016596049+1147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng

  • 21 July 2026Wuhan Three Towns 2–2 Shandong LunengFA Cup
  • 24 May 2026Shandong Luneng 3–3 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 22 November 2025Wuhan Three Towns 1–5 Shandong LunengSuper League
  • 25 June 2025Shandong Luneng 3–1 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 21 September 2024Shandong Luneng 0–0 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 11 May 2024Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shandong LunengSuper League

Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng

Wuhan Three Towns

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cádiz226

Shandong Luneng

GoalsAssists

  • Cryzan209
  • V. Qazaishvili1010

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shandong Luneng won 5–3 at Wuhan Three Towns. The model had made a win for Shandong Luneng its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Memet Imran 8' for Shandong Luneng, He Guan 12' for Wuhan Three Towns, Cryzan 18' for Shandong Luneng, Cryzan (penalty) 27' for Shandong Luneng, J. Cadiz (penalty) 67' for Wuhan Three Towns, J. Cadiz 75' for Wuhan Three Towns, V. Qazaishvili 83' for Shandong Luneng, V. Qazaishvili 90+3' for Shandong Luneng.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wuhan Three Towns a 97.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 94.6% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 100.0%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Shandong Luneng the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 59.5% going in: 84.2% after a win, 46.8% after a draw, 32.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.2%, 24.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wuhan Three Towns v Shandong Luneng has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 24% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 24% / 43%: the biggest move is Wuhan Three Towns's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Wuhan Three Towns win33%▼ −5
  2. Draw24%=
  3. Shandong Luneng win43%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.