QPR vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: QPR 0-1 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% QPR, 29% draw, 31% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts QPR at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — QPR vs Middlesbrough
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 27A. MbengueD
- 3J. DunneD
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 19D. CirkinD
- 17K. PokuM
- 20H. ValeM
- 5R. EdwardsM
- 11P. SmythM
- 22R. KoneF
- 10I. ChairF
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 16R. BurrellF
- 18G. KamaraM
- 48T. LampteyD
- 15A. LloydF
- 24N. MadsenM
- 14K. SaitoF
- 40J. VaraneM
- 13C. WardG
- 1R. VítekG
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 2C. BrittainM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 17M. ArfstenM
- 22K. JosephM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 9T. ConwayF
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 5A. JonesD
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 21R. PukštasM
- 13D. StrelecF
- 31S. BrynnG
- 12L. AylingD
Form going into QPR vs Middlesbrough
QPR
- W2-1Cardiff2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn29 August 2026
Middlesbrough
- D1-1away to Burnley2 September 2026
- W3-1West Brom29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: QPR vs Middlesbrough
- 5 September 2026QPR 0–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 8 March 2026QPR 0–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 13 December 2025Middlesbrough 3–1 QPRChampionship
- 11 March 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 5 November 2024QPR 1–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 9 March 2024QPR 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Leading scorers: QPR and Middlesbrough
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Middlesbrough
- W. Lankshear6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.