5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Millwall vs Bolton Championship prediction & result

The Den, London
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Millwall 4-0 Bolton.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Millwall, 29% draw, 29% Bolton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Millwall at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Millwall99%Draw1%Bolton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Caleb Taylorassist: Jenson Metcalfe
38'
45'
🔁John Mcateeout: Ruben Rodrigues
🔁Derek Mazou Sackoout: D. Kelly
55'
60'
🔁Sam Dalbyout: Thelonius Bair
60'
🔁Samuel Ilingout: Kyliane Dong
🔁Taïryk Arconteout: Yanis Ali Issoufou
65'
🔁Romain Esseout: Zakariya Lovelace
65'
75'
Akin Famewo
75'
🔁Akin Famewoout: Max Conway
76'
🔁Xavier Simonsout: Ryan Hardie
🔁Jordi Osei-Tutuout: Elkan Baggott
81'
⚽Lyndon Dykesassist: Zakariya Lovelace
83'
86'
Josh Sheehan
Jenson Metcalfe
86'
⚽Lyndon Dykesassist: Zak Sturge
88'
⚽Camiel Neghli
90+2'

Match stats — Millwall vs Bolton

39%Possession61%
12Shots13
5On target4
4Corners9

Line-ups

Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 11R. EsseM
  • 7T. ArconteM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 51Sacha Tsugita VieiraM
  • 55Tristan ParkesD
  • 44Alfie MasseyM
  • 34F. MarschallG
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 35Y. IssoufouF
  • 23D. BatthD
  • 12E. BaggottD
Coach: A. Neil
Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BonhamG
  • 5L. BruntD
  • 3C. Forino-JosephD
  • 6B. DaviesD
  • 14A. FamewoD
  • 4X. SimonsM
  • 8J. SheehanM
  • 16S. Iling-JuniorM
  • 45J. McAteeM
  • 11T. GaleM
  • 10S. DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 18E. ToalD
  • 20Ruben RodriguesF
  • 26J. NelsonF
  • 39R. HardieF
  • 21E. ErhahonM
  • 7K. DongF
  • 25M. ConwayD
  • 31G. BazunuG
  • 9T. BairF
Coach: S. Schumacher

Form going into Millwall vs Bolton

Millwall

  • L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026

Bolton

  • L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Millwall73131313010
20Bolton7214712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millwall vs Bolton

  • 5 September 2026Millwall 4–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 9 March 2019Bolton 2–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 24 November 2018Millwall 1–1 BoltonChampionship
  • 10 April 2018Bolton 0–2 MillwallChampionship
  • 12 August 2017Millwall 1–1 BoltonChampionship
  • 19 November 2016Bolton 2–0 MillwallLeague One

Leading scorers: Millwall and Bolton

Millwall

  • L. Dykes4 goals
  • T. Arconte3 goals

Bolton

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.