Millwall vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 4-0 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Millwall, 29% draw, 29% Bolton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs Bolton
Line-ups
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 11R. EsseM
- 7T. ArconteM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 13L. DykesF
- 51Sacha Tsugita VieiraM
- 55Tristan ParkesD
- 44Alfie MasseyM
- 34F. MarschallG
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 16D. KellyM
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 23D. BatthD
- 12E. BaggottD
- 1J. BonhamG
- 5L. BruntD
- 3C. Forino-JosephD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 4X. SimonsM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 45J. McAteeM
- 11T. GaleM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 18E. ToalD
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 7K. DongF
- 25M. ConwayD
- 31G. BazunuG
- 9T. BairF
Form going into Millwall vs Bolton
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
What these results say
- Millwall scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Bolton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Bolton
- 9 March 2019Bolton 2–1 MillwallChampionship
- 24 November 2018Millwall 1–1 BoltonChampionship
- 10 April 2018Bolton 0–2 MillwallChampionship
- 12 August 2017Millwall 1–1 BoltonChampionship
- 19 November 2016Bolton 2–0 MillwallLeague One
Leading scorers: Millwall and Bolton
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millwall beat Bolton 4–0. The model had made a win for Millwall its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Caleb Taylor 38' for Millwall, Lyndon Dykes 83' for Millwall, Lyndon Dykes 88' for Millwall, Camiel Neghli 90+2' for Millwall. Sent off: Josh Sheehan (Bolton) 86', Jenson Metcalfe (Millwall) 86'.