Stoke City vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stoke City 4-0 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stoke City, 29% draw, 31% Charlton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stoke City at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stoke City vs Charlton
Line-ups
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 18B. LawalD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 20S. GallagherF
- 15G. HirstF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 11L. CisséF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 7J. McGlynnM
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 18I. MesíkD
- 5L. JonesD
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 17A. BellD
- 16T. OumaM
- 34O. SkippM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 19M. AlliF
- 30R. ApterM
- 21T. BrooksG
- 14S. CareyM
- 6C. CoventryM
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 33Micah MbickF
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 32A. MwambaD
Form going into Stoke City vs Charlton
Stoke City
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
Charlton
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
- W1-0Preston29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Charlton
- 5 September 2026Stoke City 4–0 CharltonChampionship
- 11 February 2026Charlton 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 25 November 2025Stoke City 3–0 CharltonChampionship
- 8 February 2020Stoke City 3–1 CharltonChampionship
- 10 August 2019Charlton 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Charlton
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals
- E. Bocat2 goals2 assists
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.