5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Portsmouth vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Portsmouth 2-0 Cardiff.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Portsmouth, 28% draw, 31% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portsmouth at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth99%Draw1%Cardiff0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Krystian Bielik
⚽Conor Shaughnessyassist: Tyrese Shade
31'
⚽Marko Milovanovićassist: Adrian Segecic
52'
60'
Ollie·Tanner
63'
🔁David Turnbullout: Joel Colwill
64'
🔁Christopher Willockout: Rubin Colwill
🔁Rocco Robert Sheinout: Ebou Adams
65'
🔁Jayden Meghomaout: Zak Swanson
65'
🔁Marko Milovanovićout: Colby·Bishop
69'
🔁Tyrese Shadeout: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
69'
83'
🔁Ollie·Tannerout: C. Ashford
86'
Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson
90+1'
🔁Krystian Bielikout: Calum Scanlon
90+2'
Yousef Salech
🔁Marlon Packout: Iyad Mohamed
90+4'

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Cardiff

36%Possession64%
15Shots17
5On target5
5Corners7

Line-ups

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 24T. DevlinD
  • 2Benjamin ArthurD
  • 6C. ShaughnessyD
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 7M. PackM
  • 19R. SheinM
  • 11A. KamaraM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 17T. ShadeM
  • 29M. MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 38E. AdamsM
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 9C. BishopF
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenF
  • 32E. KennyM
  • 37I. MohamedM
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 1N. SchmidG
Coach: John Mousinho
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 5K. BielikD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 41M. TurnerG
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 45Cian AshfordF
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 10R. ColwillM
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 47C. RobinsonF
  • 23C. ScanlonD
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Form going into Portsmouth vs Cardiff

Portsmouth

  • L0-2Derby1 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lincoln22 August 2026

Cardiff

  • L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
  • D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Portsmouth621378-17
21Cardiff7043711-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Cardiff

  • 5 September 2026Portsmouth 2–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 11 February 2025Portsmouth 2–1 CardiffChampionship
  • 22 October 2024Cardiff 2–0 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 9 August 2022Cardiff 0–3 PortsmouthLeague Cup
  • 8 August 2017Cardiff 2–1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
  • 21 January 2012Cardiff 3–2 PortsmouthChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.