5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Swansea vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Swansea 0-0 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Swansea, 29% draw, 30% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Swansea at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swansea5%Draw92%Wrexham3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Filip Lissahout: Ben Cabango
53'
🔁Eom Ji-Sungout: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
53'
62'
🔁Oliver Rathboneout: Josh Windass
62'
🔁Ryan·Longmanout: Jacques Ekomié
62'
🔁Danny Imrayout: Issa Kabore
63'
🔁Sam Smithout: Kieffer Moore
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
63'
Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
67'
🔁melker widellout: Elijah Just
75'
🔁Jay Fultonout: Marko Stamenić
75'
Ben Cabango
77'
78'
🔁Callum O'Hareout: Lewis O'Brien
Stephen Welsh
88'

Match stats — Swansea vs Wrexham

61%Possession39%
6Shots8
3On target1
5Corners2

Line-ups

Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 2J. KeyD
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 7M. WidellM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 46S. EustáquioM
  • 49M. YeoF
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
Substitutes
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 8E. JustF
  • 35RonaldF
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 6M. StamenićM
Coach: Vítor Matos
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 28S. SmithF
Substitutes
  • 3J. EkomiéD
  • 12I. KaboréD
  • 19K. MooreF
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 21D. WardG
  • 10J. WindassM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 6J. WorrallD
Coach: P. Parkinson

Form going into Swansea vs Wrexham

Swansea

  • W2-0Watford1 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026

Wrexham

  • W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Swansea7421115+614
19Wrexham7142711-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swansea vs Wrexham

  • 5 September 2026Swansea 0–0 WrexhamChampionship
  • 13 March 2026Wrexham 2–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 19 December 2025Swansea 2–1 WrexhamChampionship

Leading scorers: Swansea and Wrexham

Swansea

  • A. Idah3 goals1 assists

Wrexham

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.