1 November 2026, 15:15 UTC

Racing Santander vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Estadio El Sardinero, Santander
Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Racing Santander 0-3 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 12% Racing Santander, 17% draw, 71% Real Madrid — fair odds of 8.33, 5.88 and 1.41.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Madrid at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Racing Santander0%Draw1%Real Madrid99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Kylian Mbappé (pen)
21'
⚽Jude Bellinghamassist: Arda Güler
🔁Alvaro Mantillaout: Pedro Felipe
29'
Jeanuël Belocian
34'
36'
⚽Yan Diomande
Iker Luque
45+1'
🔁Pablo Ramon Parraout: Íñigo Sáinz-Maza
60'
🔁Yassir Zabiriout: Pablo García
61'
67'
🔁Arda Gülerout: Brahim Díaz
•Iván Martín
72'
77'
🔁Bernardo Silvaout: Eduardo Camavinga
🔁Iñigo Vicenteout: Giorgi Guliashvili
82'
🔁Iván Martínout: André Almeida
82'
85'
🔁Yan Diomandeout: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa

Match stats — Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

46%Possession54%
10Shots22
1On target7
4Corners6
1.23xG3.5

Goals against chances

Racing Santander0 from 1.23 xGless than the chances were worth
Real Madrid3 from 3.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
  • 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
  • 2Álvaro MantillaD
  • 5Pablo RamónD
  • 24J. BelocianD
  • 3Aarón MartínD
  • 23Iván MartínM
  • 18M. PratiM
  • 19Iker LuqueM
  • 20Sergio CanalesM
  • 10Iñigo VicenteM
  • 21M. ZabiriF
Substitutes
  • 8André AlmeidaM
  • 9Juan Carlos AranaF
  • 15Pablo GarcíaF
  • 16Facundo GonzálezD
  • 14M. GueyeM
  • 7G. GuliashviliF
  • 4Manu HernandoD
  • 22Pedro FelipeD
  • 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
Coach: José Alberto López
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 14A. TchouaméniM
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 21Brahim DíazM
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 3Éder MilitãoD
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 26Sergio MestreG
  • 27Thiago PitarchM
Coach: José Mourinho

Form going into Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

Racing Santander

La Liga

  • W2-1Espanyol24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
  • D2-2Valencia11 October 2026

Real Madrid

La Liga

  • W2-1away to Barcelona25 October 2026
  • W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
  • W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Racing Santander124261730-1314
2Real Madrid1210023110+2130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

  • 18 February 2012Real Madrid 4–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 21 September 2011Racing Santander 0–0 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 6 March 2011Racing Santander 1–3 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 23 October 2010Real Madrid 6–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga

The full Racing Santander vs Real Madrid record →

Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Real Madrid

Racing Santander

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zabiri90

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé132
  • J. Bellingham43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid won 3–0 at Racing Santander. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: Kylian Mbappé (penalty) 11' for Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham 21' for Real Madrid, Yan Diomande 36' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 1.23–3.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Racing Santander a 47.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.5% after a win, 45.0% after a draw, 49.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.4%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Real Madrid the question was the chance to win the league, 27.2% going in: 28.7% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 20.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Racing Santander v Real Madrid has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 14% / 18% / 68% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 12% / 17% / 71%: the biggest move is Real Madrid's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Racing Santander win12%▼ −2
  2. Draw17%▼ −1
  3. Real Madrid win71%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.