Elche vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-1 Valencia.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Elche, 27% draw, 24% Valencia — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Elche at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Valencia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 18T. LemarM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 6BigasD
- 19G. DianganaF
- 17JosanM
- 29Ali HouaryF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 5César TárregaD
- 18PepeluD
- 14José GayàD
- 24Pablo MaffeoM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 15A. DiengM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 20D. FoulquierD
- 19Dani RabaF
- 13Cristian RiveroG
- 6U. SadiqF
- 39R. SatoM
Form going into Elche vs Valencia
Elche
La Liga
- W3-0away to Rayo Vallecano24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
Valencia
La Liga
- L1-2Villarreal24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Valencia
Elche and Valencia have met 7 times in the records we hold, Valencia has won 4 of them to Elche's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Valencia won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Valencia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
La LigaElche 0–1 Valencia - 11 Apr 2026
La LigaElche 1–0 Valencia - 10 Jan 2026
La LigaValencia 1–1 Elche - 23 Apr 2023
La LigaElche 0–2 Valencia - 15 Oct 2022
La LigaValencia 2–2 Elche - 19 Mar 2022
La LigaElche 0–1 Valencia - 11 Dec 2021
La LigaValencia 2–1 Elche
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Elche's attack rates 18% above Valencia's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Elche and Valencia
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valencia won 1–0 at Elche. The model had leaned towards a win for Elche at 49% and given a win for Valencia 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Umar Sadiq 69' for Valencia. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.96.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Elche a 5.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.1% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Valencia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.7% going in: 28.4% after a win, 35.6% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.4%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Elche v Valencia has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Elche's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Elche win49%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Valencia win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.