Getafe vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Getafe 3-1 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Getafe, 33% draw, 36% Sevilla — fair odds of 3.23, 3.03 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Sevilla at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Getafe vs Sevilla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13David SoriaG
- 14Daniel CarvajalD
- 15S. BoselliD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 26J. ValouD
- 8N. GudeljM
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 21Andrés GarcíaM
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 5A. AbqarD
- 20Iván AzónF
- 36I. K. DanfakhaF
- 3DavinchiD
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 17Kiko FemeníaD
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 23O. MangalaM
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 21C. EjukeM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 19L. StassinF
- 16IsaacF
- 11R. VargasM
- 9R. UreF
- 12A. SanganteD
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
Form going into Getafe vs Sevilla
Getafe
La Liga
- L0-4away to Athletic Club25 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
Sevilla
La Liga
- W2-0Osasuna26 October 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Sevilla
Getafe and Sevilla have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sevilla has won 4 of them to Getafe's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Getafe won the last one 3–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| Sevilla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
La LigaGetafe 3–1 Sevilla - 22 Feb 2026
La LigaGetafe 0–1 Sevilla - 25 Aug 2025
La LigaSevilla 1–2 Getafe - 1 Feb 2025
La LigaGetafe 0–0 Sevilla - 14 Sep 2024
La LigaSevilla 1–0 Getafe - 30 Mar 2024
La LigaGetafe 0–1 Sevilla - 16 Jan 2024
Copa del ReyGetafe 1–3 Sevilla
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Sevilla's attack rates 56% above Getafe's, and Getafe concede 17% fewer than Sevilla. How the ratings are derived.
The result against the call
Getafe beat Sevilla 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sevilla at 36% and given a win for Getafe 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kike Salas 19' for Sevilla, Enes Ünal 68' for Getafe, Martin Satriano 73' for Getafe, Orel Mangala 90+4' for Getafe. Sent off: Manuel Bueno Sebastián (Sevilla) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Getafe a 42.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.7% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.
For Sevilla the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.5% going in: 8.1% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Getafe v Sevilla has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 33% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 31% / 33% / 36%: the biggest move is Getafe's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Getafe win31%▼ −3
- Draw33%=
- Sevilla win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.