Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Radomiak Radom, 24% draw, 54% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 54% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Filip MajchrowiczG
- 24Zié OuattaraD
- 3Kryspin SzcześniakD
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 97Conrado BuchanelliD
- 8Ibrahima CamaráM
- 13Jan GrzesikM
- 27Rafał WolskiM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 7Ché NunnelyM
- 11Fernand GouréF
- 90Ronaldo LumungoF
- 15Abdoul TapsobaF
- 72Filip KoperskiM
- 18ManuF
- 23Kacper KarasekM
- 99Bartlomiej GradeckiG
- 47Szymon KilianekD
- 5Jérémy BlascoD
- 28Romário BaróM
- 1Philipp SchulzeG
- 61Michal SáčekD
- 26Rafał JanickiD
- 4Paweł BochniewiczD
- 21Ondřej ZmrzlýD
- 66Maximilian DietzM
- 19Peter GonzálezM
- 82Kacper UrbańskiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 33Maksym KhlanM
- 23Sondre LisethF
- 28Bastien DonioM
- 18Lukáš SadílekM
- 88Taofeek IsmaheelM
- 7Yvan Ikia DimiM
- 11Erik PrekopF
- 99Tomasz LoskaG
- 2Patryk WarczakD
- 20JosemaD
- 64Erik JanžaD
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
Radomiak Radom
- L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- L0-1away to Ferencvarosi TC5 August 2026
- D1-1Fenerbahçe29 July 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Fenerbahçe21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
- 8 August 2026Radomiak Radom 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 23 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 6–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 28 November 2025Radomiak Radom 4–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 15 February 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 25 September 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Radomiak RadomCup
- 9 August 2024Radomiak Radom 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze
Radomiak Radom
- R. Wolski3 goals
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.