Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Pogon Szczecin, 21% draw, 22% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 57% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Valentin CojocaruG
- 28Linus WahlqvistD
- 13Dimitrios KeramitsisD
- 41Attila SzalaiD
- 4Léo BorgesD
- 8Fredrik UlvestadM
- 16Patryk DziczekM
- 35Maciej WojciechowskiM
- 7Musa JuwaraM
- 21Darko ChurlinovM
- 18Paul MukairuF
- 83Axel HolewińskiG
- 29Lukas WillenD
- 15Hussein AliD
- 23Benjamin MendyD
- 47Natan ŁawaM
- 19Mor NdiayeM
- 11Kamil GrosickiM
- 6Jan BiegańskiM
- 3Kellyn AcostaM
- 71Mihai PopaG
- 29Thomas SantosD
- 18Bartosz BereszyńskiD
- 4Tin PlavotićD
- 24Filip LubereckiD
- 27Yacine BourhaneM
- 30Mbaye NdiayeM
- 8Christopher SimonM
- 6Mateusz ŁęgowskiM
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 10Karol CzubakF
- 99Patryk KukulskiG
- 33Gašper TratnikG
- 5Artem AkatovD
- 2Paskal MeyerD
- 39Marek Kristián BartošD
- 16Franciszek LewandowskiM
- 17Kamil LukoszekM
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
- 70Makan AïkoM
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Motor Lublin
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
- 8 August 2026Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 1 February 2026Motor Lublin 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 July 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 14 May 2025Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2024Motor Lublin 4–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.