8 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 47% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Legia Warszawa at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce3%Draw93%Legia Warszawa4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽L. Zjawinskiassist: K. Piatkowski
51'
Rafał Adamski
Kamil Jakubczyk
60'
🔁A. Mosorout: S. Davidovic
63'
67'
🔁W. Urbanskiout: J. Zewlakow
67'
🔁L. Zjawinskiout: M. Rajovic
⚽M. Stepinskiassist: W. Dlugosz
70'
🔁K. Jakubczykout: M. Remacle
71'
🔁S. Gustafsonout: Nono
85'
🔁M. Stepinskiout: D. Bak
85'
87'
🔁B. Kapustkaout: H. Arreiol
88'
🔁P. Wszolekout: A. Reca

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa

61%Possession39%
14Shots5
3On target1
6Corners0
0.67xG0.61

Goals against chances

Korona Kielce1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Legia Warszawa1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 3-4-2-1
  • 1X. DziekonskiG
  • 23S. RubezicD
  • 44K. SotiriouD
  • 2A. MosorD
  • 71W. DlugoszM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 35K. JakubczykM
  • 6M. PieczekM
  • 86S. GustafsonF
  • 22M. FassbenderF
  • 14M. StepinskiF
Substitutes
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 10NonoM
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 37H. ZwoznyD
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 9S. DavidovicM
  • 21K. CiszekD
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 99D. BakF
Coach: Jacek Zielinski
Legia Warszawa 3-1-4-2
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiatkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5R. DezielD
  • 4D. SzymanskiM
  • 22P. WszolekM
  • 53W. UrbanskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19R. VinagreM
  • 79L. ZjawinskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Substitutes
  • 59J. BiendugaG
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 23M. SevcikM
  • 6H. ArreiolM
  • 20J. ZewlakowF
  • 97E. MikanovichM
  • 77F. PrzybylkoM
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 29M. RajovicF
Coach: Marek Papszun

Form going into Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa

Korona Kielce

  • L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026

Legia Warszawa

  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Korona Kielce833298+112
2Legia Warszawa8440167+916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa

  • 8 August 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 1 February 2026Legia Warszawa 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 27 July 2025Korona Kielce 0–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 2 February 2025Legia Warszawa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 28 July 2024Korona Kielce 0–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 25 February 2024Korona Kielce 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa

Korona Kielce

  • M. Stępiński4 goals
  • M. Faßbender3 goals

Legia Warszawa

  • R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
  • R. Adamski3 goals
  • Ł. Zjawiński3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.