23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Randers FC vs Brondby Superliga prediction & result

Cepheus Park, Randers
Referee: Jens Maae
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Randers FC 1-3 Brondby.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Randers FC, 28% draw, 41% Brondby — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brondby at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Randers FC0%Draw1%Brondby99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Mads Frokjaer-Jensen (pen)
⚽Mike Themsen (pen)
45'
60'
⚽Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
🔁Kasper Junkerout: Elies Mahmoud
62'
🔁Axel Henrikssonout: Felix Sommer
63'
64'
⚽Mads Frokjaer-Jensenassist: Marcus Younis
65'
🔁Oliver Marc Rose-Villadsenout: Christopher Olivier
65'
🔁Jacob Brøchner Ambækout: Oskar Fenger
70'
Oskar Fenger
72'
🔁Olti Hyseniout: Filip Bundgaard Kristensen
🔁Martin André Sjølstadout: Amady Camara
75'
🔁Mohamed Sankohout: Warren Caddy
84'
🔁Sabil Osman Hansenout: Simon Stüker
84'
89'
🔁Mads Frokjaer-Jensenout: Sho Fukuda
89'
🔁Marcus Younisout: Casper Winther

Match stats — Randers FC vs Brondby

49%Possession51%
10Shots15
5On target8
6Corners6
1.39xG3.25

Goals against chances

Randers FC1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Brondby3 from 3.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Randers FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. IzzoG
  • 24S. HansenD
  • 27N. HoplandD
  • 3D. HøeghD
  • 44N. DyhrD
  • 30M. SankohM
  • 17M. GreveM
  • 15M. SjølstadM
  • 21A. HenrikssonM
  • 7M. ThemsenM
  • 77K. JunkerF
Substitutes
  • 32J. StorchG
  • 10W. CaddyF
  • 36A. CamaraF
  • 33C. EdudziF
  • 29S. StukerD
  • 26H. HoyrupM
  • 5O. JonesD
  • 11E. MahmoudM
  • 31F. SommerD
Coach: R. Bertelsen
Brondby 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. PentzG
  • 2O. VilladsenD
  • 37R. CanutD
  • 32F. AlvesD
  • 24M. DivkovićD
  • 99B. SliszM
  • 18M. EjdumM
  • 21M. YounisM
  • 29M. Frøkjær-JensenM
  • 7O. HyseniM
  • 38J. AmbækF
Substitutes
  • 50W. Sonne SchmidG
  • 3Christopher OlivierD
  • 9P. MortensenF
  • 34Lukas LarsenD
  • 15C. WintherM
  • 19S. FukudaF
  • 51O. FengerF
  • 11F. BundgaardF
  • 10D. WassM
Coach: Thomas Nörgaard

Form going into Randers FC vs Brondby

Randers FC

Superliga

  • D0-0away to AC Horsens16 October 2026
  • L0-2Viborg11 October 2026

Brondby

Superliga

  • L1-2away to Odense18 October 2026
  • W5-2Lyngby11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Randers FC143291427-1311
5Brondby147162321+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Randers FC vs Brondby

  • 6 September 2026Brondby 0–3 Randers FCSuperliga
  • 8 February 2026Brondby 0–0 Randers FCSuperliga
  • 17 August 2025Randers FC 0–2 BrondbySuperliga
  • 25 April 2025Randers FC 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
  • 21 April 2025Brondby 4–3 Randers FCSuperliga
  • 10 March 2025Randers FC 4–2 BrondbySuperliga

Leading scorers: Randers FC and Brondby

Randers FC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Themsen51
  • M. Sankoh41

Brondby

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frøkjær-Jensen51
  • O. Hyseni43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Brondby won 3–1 at Randers FC. The model had made a win for Brondby its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen (penalty) 15' for Brondby, Mike Themsen (penalty) 45' for Randers FC, Jacob Brøchner Ambæk 60' for Brondby, Mads Frokjaer-Jensen 64' for Brondby. On expected goals it finished 1.39–3.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Randers FC a 53.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.4% after a win, 54.1% after a draw, 63.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.9%, 10 points higher than before the match.

For Brondby the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 69.2% going in: 78.7% after a win, 66.2% after a draw, 58.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.7%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Randers FC v Brondby has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Randers FC's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Randers FC win31%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Brondby win41%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.