Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Lyngby 3-3 FC Nordsjaelland.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Lyngby, 25% draw, 51% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Nordsjaelland at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31D. KochenG
- 2O. BuurD
- 30M. FischerD
- 24M. GaranangaD
- 25R. TytensD
- 19G. FrauloM
- 14L. SandgravM
- 18J. ThomasenM
- 7S. ColynM
- 26F. GytkjærF
- 10Í. ÞorvaldssonF
- 17W. SteindorssonM
- 16Z. SertdemirM
- 6D. KristjánssonD
- 5Oliver HøjerM
- 8M. HeboM
- 12David Helgi AronssonD
- 35M. AndersonF
- 4C. AllenD
- 1J. ÆgidiusG
- 13A. HansenG
- 25V. NelssonD
- 3T. SalquistD
- 4Noah MarkmannD
- 23R. NorheimM
- 8N. RøjkjærM
- 6M. BrinkM
- 5J. LähteenmäkiM
- 29V. BerthelsenF
- 11A. LindF
- 10P. AmoakoF
- 28M. WalkerD
- 37Lamine SadioM
- 40H. Boe RasmussenM
- 18Justin JanssenM
- 21M. HeydeM
- 16J. BuskG
- 2P. AnkersenD
- 14Ibrahim AdelF
- 15S. AcquahD
Form going into Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby
Superliga
- L2-5away to Brondby11 October 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lyngby | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 11 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 16 March 2025Lyngby 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 11 August 2024FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 LyngbySuperliga
- 18 February 2024FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 LyngbySuperliga
- 3 September 2023Lyngby 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 19 February 2023Lyngby 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 1 August 2022FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby
GoalsAssists
- S. Colyn53
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind63
- Ibrahim Adel43
- H. Boe Rasmussen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Nordsjaelland at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Simon Colyn 17' for Lyngby, Gustav Leone Fraulo 32' for Lyngby, Frederik Gytkjær 61' for Lyngby, Justin Janssen 71' for FC Nordsjaelland, Runar Robinsonn Norheim 74' for FC Nordsjaelland, Malte Heyde 77' for FC Nordsjaelland. On expected goals it finished 2.18–2.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lyngby a 76.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 65.4% after a win, 76.4% after a draw, 82.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 76.4%.
For FC Nordsjaelland the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 73.7% going in: 79.7% after a win, 70.3% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 70.3%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 24% / 25% / 51%: the biggest move is FC Nordsjaelland's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Lyngby win24%▼ −4
- Draw25%▼ −3
- FC Nordsjaelland win51%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.