18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg Superliga prediction & result

Haderslev Football Stadium, Haderslev
Referee: Svend Funder
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Sonderjyske 4-0 Silkeborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sonderjyske, 24% draw, 39% Silkeborg — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Silkeborg at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sonderjyske99%Draw1%Silkeborg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dalton Wilkinsassist: Osaze De Rosario
1'
🔁Dalton Wilkinsout: Anders Bergholt
9'
17'
•Villads Westh
18'
Villads Westh
⚽Stefan Velkovassist: Mathias Olesen
22'
28'
🔁William Kirkout: Maël Durand de Gevigney
29'
Mads Freundlich
⚽Mohamed Cherifassist: Mathias Olesen
32'
45'
🔁Oliver Rossout: Andreas Poulsen
45'
🔁Kristian Bloch Bøgildout: Kristian Kirkegaard
Alexander Munksgaard
65'
67'
🔁Mads Freundlichout: Rami Hajal
🔁Anders Bergholtout: Bubacarr Tambedou
70'
🔁Ismaïl Seydiout: Andreas Oggesen
70'
🔁Osaze De Rosarioout: Teodor Berg Haltvik
70'
⚽Teodor Berg Haltvikassist: Mathias Olesen
78'
•Teodor Berg Haltvik
79'
80'
🔁Lucas Thorst Riisgaardout: Julius Lorents Nielsen
🔁Anders Raffnsøe Hoegout: Jacob Christensen
81'

Match stats — Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg

61%Possession39%
15Shots7
7On target3
9Corners1
1.81xG0.63

Goals against chances

Sonderjyske4 from 1.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Silkeborg0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sonderjyske 4-2-3-1
  • 24N. ShintonG
  • 3A. MunksgaardD
  • 12M. SoulasD
  • 21S. VelkovD
  • 19P. KristensenD
  • 17A. HoegM
  • 10M. OlesenM
  • 31I. SeydiM
  • 8M. HaidaraM
  • 13D. WilkinsM
  • 11O. De RosarioF
Substitutes
  • 33J. ChristensenM
  • 26B. TambedouF
  • 22A. OggesenM
  • 9M. HoppeF
  • 1N. FløG
  • 30G. WagnerD
  • 25B. BjarnasonD
  • 28A. PedersenM
  • 14T. HaltvikM
Coach: Fatah Abdirahman
Silkeborg 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. AndrésenG
  • 33M. FreundlichD
  • 3R. ØstrømD
  • 24A. MadsenD
  • 7V. WesthM
  • 27W. KirkM
  • 20M. LarsenM
  • 19J. GammelbyM
  • 21L. RiisgaardM
  • 42Kristian Bloch BøgildM
  • 11O. RossF
Substitutes
  • 36J. NielsenM
  • 10K. KirkegaardM
  • 30T. MikkelsenG
  • 4Pedro GanchasD
  • 2A. PoulsenD
  • 23M. HansenF
  • 14S. BergerM
  • 22R. Al HajjM
  • 6M. de GevigneyD
Coach: M. Dahm Kjaergaard

Form going into Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg

Sonderjyske

Superliga

  • L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026

Silkeborg

Superliga

  • D3-3AC Horsens11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sonderjyske142391933-149
9Silkeborg143651824-615

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg

  • 16 February 2026Sonderjyske 2–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
  • 31 August 2025Silkeborg 0–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 11 May 2025Silkeborg 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 30 March 2025Sonderjyske 2–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
  • 2 March 2025Sonderjyske 1–3 SilkeborgSuperliga
  • 21 July 2024Silkeborg 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga

Leading scorers: Sonderjyske and Silkeborg

Sonderjyske

GoalsAssists

  • M. Haidara50

Silkeborg

GoalsAssists

  • O. Ross72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sonderjyske beat Silkeborg 4–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Silkeborg at 39% and given a win for Sonderjyske 37%. The goals: Dalton Wilkins 1' for Sonderjyske, Stefan Velkov 22' for Sonderjyske, Mohamed Cherif 32' for Sonderjyske, Teodor Berg Haltvik 78' for Sonderjyske. Sent off: Villads Westh (Silkeborg) 18'. On expected goals it finished 1.81–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sonderjyske a 82.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 76.0% after a win, 84.9% after a draw, 89.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.0%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.

For Silkeborg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.0% going in: 11.9% after a win, 20.7% after a draw, 29.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.2%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sonderjyske v Silkeborg has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 24% / 39%: the biggest move is Silkeborg's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sonderjyske win37%=
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Silkeborg win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.