29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result

Anoeta, San Sebastian
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Real Sociedad 2-1 Espanyol.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Real Sociedad, 26% draw, 31% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Sociedad at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad96%Draw4%Espanyol0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Barrenetxeaassist: M. Oyarzabal
4'
Beñat Turrientes
17'
22'
Urko González
45'
⚽R. Fernandez Jaenassist: J. Hernandez
46'
🔁U. Gonzalezout: Gabriel Moscardo
⚽O. Oskarssonassist: M. Oyarzabal
61'
🔁B. Turrientesout: Y. Herrera
62'
🔁A. Barrenetxeaout: A. Marchal
63'
70'
🔁Expositoout: R. Bauza
70'
🔁J. Hernandezout: M. Fernandez Sanchez
75'
Marcos Fernández
🔁O. Oskarssonout: G. Guedes
78'
🔁L. Sucicout: T. Kubo
78'
82'
Roger Hinojo
83'
🔁R. Fernandez Jaenout: P. Milla
83'
🔁T. Dolanout: Jofre
88'
Rafael Bauzà
Igor Zubeldia
90+3'
🔁M. Oyarzabalout: J. Gorrotxategi
90'

Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

51%Possession49%
17Shots11
10On target3
7Corners3
1.66xG0.76

Goals against chances

Real Sociedad2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Espanyol1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad 4-4-2
  • 1A. RemiroG
  • 2J. AramburuD
  • 5I. ZubeldiaD
  • 31J. MartinD
  • 17S. GomezD
  • 24L. SucicM
  • 8B. TurrientesM
  • 18C. SolerM
  • 7A. BarrenetxeaM
  • 9O. OskarssonF
  • 10M. OyarzabalF
Substitutes
  • 13U. MarreroG
  • 19M. SarrD
  • 34L. BeitiaD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 23A. ZakharyanM
  • 4J. GorrotxategiM
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 11G. GuedesF
  • 12J. OchiengF
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. DmitrovicG
  • 23O. El HilaliD
  • 16V. DrkusicD
  • 14U. NunezD
  • 21R. HinojoD
  • 4U. GonzalezM
  • 8ExpositoM
  • 22A. CalatravaM
  • 28J. HernandezM
  • 24T. DolanM
  • 9R. Fernandez JaenF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FortunoG
  • 31L. SerredG
  • 3Q. HartmanD
  • 5C. RiedelD
  • 32J. A. LopezD
  • 10P. LozanoM
  • 20Gabriel MoscardoM
  • 26R. BauzaM
  • 11P. MillaM
Coach: Manolo Gonzalez

Form going into Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

Real Sociedad

  • L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026

Espanyol

  • L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Real Sociedad6213611-57
8Espanyol621397+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

  • 29 August 2026Real Sociedad 2–1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 23 May 2026Espanyol 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 24 August 2025Real Sociedad 2–2 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 9 February 2025Real Sociedad 2–1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 24 August 2024Espanyol 0–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 13 February 2023Espanyol 2–3 Real SociedadLa Liga

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Espanyol

Real Sociedad

  • L. Sučić2 goals

Espanyol

  • Roberto Fernández6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.