Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sevilla, 27% draw, 32% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sevilla at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2J. IglesiasD
- 5CastrinD
- 4K. SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 6L. AgoumeM
- 18J. GuridiM
- 30M. SierraM
- 10PequeM
- 3J. DiazM
- 9R. UreF
- 13FranG
- 12A. SanganteD
- 22J. A. CarmonaD
- 34I. MunozD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 28M. BuenoM
- 27N. GuillenM
- 21C. EjukeF
- 37I. Sow
- 13J. OblakG
- 14M. LlorenteD
- 18M. PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22A. GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8P. BarriosM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 11A. LookmanM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 10A. BaenaF
- 1J. MussoG
- 2J. GimenezD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 30D. MartinezD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 6KokeM
- 12C. MartinF
- 4R. MendozaM
- 5J. CardosoM
Form going into Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
- 11 April 2026Sevilla 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 November 2025Atletico Madrid 3–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 6 April 2025Sevilla 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 8 December 2024Atletico Madrid 4–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 11 February 2024Sevilla 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid won 3–1 at Sevilla. The model had leaned towards a win for Sevilla at 41% and given a win for Atletico Madrid 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Baena 4' for Atletico Madrid, A. Lookman 26' for Atletico Madrid, A. Baena 33' for Atletico Madrid, M. Sierra 66' for Sevilla. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.93.