29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Sevilla
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sevilla, 27% draw, 32% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sevilla at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sevilla0%Draw1%Atletico Madrid99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽A. Baenaassist: Lee Kang-In
26'
⚽A. Lookmanassist: P. Barrios
33'
⚽A. Baenaassist: M. Llorente
45+4'
Marcos Llorente
🔁J. Guridiout: G. Kochorashvili
55'
🔁J. Diazout: C. Ejuke
55'
66'
🔁M. Llorenteout: J. Gimenez
66'
🔁A. Lookmanout: A. Ortiz
⚽M. Sierraassist: R. Ure
66'
🔁Pequeout: I. Romero
68'
72'
🔁Lee Kang-Inout: Koke
🔁M. Sierraout: A. Gonzalez
80'
85'
🔁A. Baenaout: R. Mendoza
85'
🔁M. Hjulmandout: J. Cardoso
Isaac Romero
89'
Gabriel Suazo
90+1'
90+5'
Marc Pubill

Match stats — Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

42%Possession58%
21Shots12
5On target5
4Corners2
0.96xG0.93

Goals against chances

Sevilla1 from 0.96 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Madrid3 from 0.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sevilla 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. VlachodimosG
  • 2J. IglesiasD
  • 5CastrinD
  • 4K. SalasD
  • 17G. SuazoD
  • 6L. AgoumeM
  • 18J. GuridiM
  • 30M. SierraM
  • 10PequeM
  • 3J. DiazM
  • 9R. UreF
Substitutes
  • 13FranG
  • 12A. SanganteD
  • 22J. A. CarmonaD
  • 34I. MunozD
  • 8G. KochorashviliM
  • 28M. BuenoM
  • 27N. GuillenM
  • 21C. EjukeF
  • 37I. Sow
Coach: Luis Garcia Plaza
Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 14M. LlorenteD
  • 18M. PubillD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 22A. GrimaldoD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 8P. BarriosM
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 11A. LookmanM
  • 7Lee Kang-InF
  • 10A. BaenaF
Substitutes
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 2J. GimenezD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 30D. MartinezD
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 6KokeM
  • 12C. MartinF
  • 4R. MendozaM
  • 5J. CardosoM
Coach: Diego Simeone

Form going into Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Sevilla

  • W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026

Atletico Madrid

  • D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sevilla641196+313
3Atletico Madrid6411146+813

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

  • 29 August 2026Sevilla 1–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 11 April 2026Sevilla 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 1 November 2025Atletico Madrid 3–0 SevillaLa Liga
  • 6 April 2025Sevilla 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 8 December 2024Atletico Madrid 4–3 SevillaLa Liga
  • 11 February 2024Sevilla 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga

Leading scorers: Sevilla and Atletico Madrid

Sevilla

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Atletico Madrid

  • Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
  • G. Simeone2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.