SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% SC Freiburg, 29% draw, 26% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
SC Freiburg at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Mio BackhausG
- 17Lukas KüblerD
- 28Matthias GinterD
- 3Philipp LienhartD
- 33Jordy MakengoD
- 8Maximilian EggesteinM
- 16Yannick EngelhardtM
- 19Jan-Niklas BesteM
- 14Yuito SuzukiM
- 7Derry ScherhantM
- 31Igor MatanovićF
- 22Cyriaque IriéF
- 29Philipp TreuD
- 37Maximilian RosenfelderD
- 9Lucas HölerF
- 42Keisuke GotoF
- 21Florian MüllerG
- 27Berkay YılmazD
- 30Christian GünterD
- 32Vincenzo GrifoM
- 1Karl HeinG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 5Amos PieperD
- 32Marco FriedlD
- 2Olivier DemanD
- 20ChukiM
- 14Senne LynenM
- 15Ludovit ReisM
- 11Justin NjinmahF
- 10Niclas FüllkrugF
- 17Marco GrüllF
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 29Salim MusahF
- 26Cédric IttenF
- 24Patrice ČovićM
- 18Eren DinkçiF
- 30Alexander SchlagerG
- 22Julián MalatiniD
- 7Samuel MbangulaF
- 38Paul ErevbenagieF
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Motherwell27 August 2026
- W3-1away to Motherwell20 August 2026
Werder Bremen
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
- 7 February 2026SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Werder Bremen 0–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 21 February 2025SC Freiburg 5–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 5 October 2024Werder Bremen 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 27 January 2024Werder Bremen 3–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki50
- I. Matanović41
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 4–1. The model had made a win for SC Freiburg its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yuito Suzuki 29' for SC Freiburg, Igor Matanović 45' for SC Freiburg, Yuito Suzuki 48' for SC Freiburg, Yuito Suzuki 55' for SC Freiburg, Dariusz Stalmach 76' for Werder Bremen. On expected goals it finished 1.94–0.48.