2 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Bauer, Paris - Saint-Ouen
Referee: Thomas Vincent
Full time1 – 4

Final score: RED Star FC 93 1-4 Nancy.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% RED Star FC 93, 28% draw, 30% Nancy — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

RED Star FC 93 at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

RED Star FC 930%Draw1%Nancy99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Ilyes Housniassist: Enzo Basilio
⚽Theo Magninassist: Godson Kyeremeh
30'
Samuel Renel
31'
38'
Enzo Tacafred
⚽Damien Durand (pen)
39'
Elyaz Zidane
45+3'
45+4'
⚽Nehemiah Fernandezassist: Jeremy Gelin
61'
⚽Jeremy Gelin
🔁Saîf-Eddine Khaouiout: Idrissa Sabaly
64'
🔁Godson Kyeremehout: Kevin Cabral
64'
🔁Samuel Renelout: Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
65'
65'
🔁Enzo Tacafredout: Logan Ndenbe
65'
🔁Zakaria Fdaouchout: Chafik El Hansar
70'
Nehemiah Fernandez
🔁Islamdine Halifaout: Cheick Mory Konate
79'
84'
🔁Jeremy Gelinout: Kouroufia Kebe
🔁Damien Durandout: Ilija Despotovic
85'
86'
⚽El Hadari Raheriniainaassist: Ilyes Housni
90'
🔁Nehemiah Fernandezout: Thierno Balde
90'
🔁Pape Meissa Baout: Ibrahim cisse

Match stats — RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy

61%Possession39%
11Shots12
2On target6
13Corners3
1.83xG1.71

Goals against chances

RED Star FC 931 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Nancy4 from 1.71 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RED Star FC 93 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. PoussinG
  • 2T. MagninD
  • 6B. DangerD
  • 4E. ZidaneD
  • 3M. HuardD
  • 19I. HalifaM
  • 17S. RenelM
  • 11K. CisséM
  • 10S. KhaouiM
  • 7D. DurandM
  • 27G. KyeremehF
Substitutes
  • 25Leonardo ButaD
  • 91K. CabralF
  • 80C. Bianay BalcotD
  • 1Yanis Benchaouch MartyG
  • 9I. DespotovicF
  • 12Sekou GuindoD
  • 23J. Ikanga A NgeleF
  • 45Cheick KonateM
  • 21Idrissa SabalyM
Coach: D. Perrinelle
Nancy 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. BasilioG
  • 44E. TacafredD
  • 77Y. NahounouD
  • 21E. MendyD
  • 4N. Fernandez-VelizD
  • 25J. GélinM
  • 8W. BouabdelliM
  • 9I. HousniM
  • 12El HadariM
  • 7Z. FdaouchM
  • 5P. Meïssa BaF
Substitutes
  • 11I. CisseF
  • 45C. El HansarM
  • 17Mamadou Fofana IIM
  • 6K. KebeF
  • 30G. LembetG
  • 22L. NdenbeD
  • 29N. ObougoujacquetF
  • 19T. BaldéD
  • 14N. Saint-RufD
Coach: O. Tanchot

Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy

RED Star FC 93

Ligue 2

  • L1-2away to Montpellier26 October 2026
  • L0-1Saint Etienne17 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Clermont Foot10 October 2026

Nancy

Ligue 2

  • W1-0Laval23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Annecy16 October 2026
  • W1-0Guingamp9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8RED Star FC 93125251417-317
2Nancy12813179+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy

  • 13 February 2026RED Star FC 93 2–1 NancyLigue 2
  • 19 September 2025Nancy 0–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
  • 22 March 2024RED Star FC 93 1–1 NancyLigue 3
  • 11 October 2023Nancy 1–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 3
  • 17 April 2023Nancy 1–4 RED Star FC 93Ligue 3
  • 25 November 2022RED Star FC 93 1–0 NancyLigue 3

Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and Nancy

RED Star FC 93

GoalsAssists

  • D. Durand50
  • J. Ikanga A Ngele42

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nancy won 4–1 at RED Star FC 93. The model had leaned towards a win for RED Star FC 93 at 42% and given a win for Nancy 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ilyes Housni 21' for Nancy, Theo Magnin 30' for RED Star FC 93, Nehemiah Fernandez 45+4' for Nancy, Jeremy Gelin 61' for Nancy, El Hadari Raheriniaina 86' for Nancy. On expected goals it finished 1.83–1.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave RED Star FC 93 a 7.7% chance to finish in the top two: 9.7% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For Nancy the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 6.2% going in: 8.0% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on RED Star FC 93 v Nancy has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is RED Star FC 93's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. RED Star FC 93 win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Nancy win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.