Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 0-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lorient, 28% draw, 28% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lorient at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 95S. TouréD
- 20D. SyllaM
- 62A. AvomM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 19S. FayeM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 21B. KamaraG
- 30S. KuzmićD
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 72N. MbambaM
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 10I. JensenF
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 15A. TosinF
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 29L. TousartD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 17Mama BaldéM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 39D. N´GuessanF
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 11N. EdjoumaF
- 6M. DiambouM
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 10G. VersiniF
Form going into Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Angers25 October 2026
- W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- L1-2Nice23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 have met 7 times in the records we hold, Stade Brestois 29 has won 4 of them to Lorient's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Stade Brestois 29 won the last one 2–0 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Ligue 1Lorient 0–2 Stade Brestois 29 - 7 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Lorient - 19 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Lorient 3–3 Stade Brestois 29 - 20 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsLorient 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 - 31 Mar 2024
Ligue 1Lorient 0–1 Stade Brestois 29 - 20 Dec 2023
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 4–0 Lorient - 7 May 2023
Ligue 1Lorient 2–1 Stade Brestois 29
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Stade Brestois 29's attack rates 30% above Lorient's, and Lorient concede 18% fewer than Stade Brestois 29. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
Leading scorers: Lorient and Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stade Brestois 29 won 2–0 at Lorient. The model had leaned towards a win for Lorient at 44% and given a win for Stade Brestois 29 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ludovic Ajorque 69' for Stade Brestois 29, Noah Edjouma 90+2' for Stade Brestois 29. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stade Brestois 29 a 4.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 2.5% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.5%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lorient v Stade Brestois 29 has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Stade Brestois 29's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lorient win44%=
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Stade Brestois 29 win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.