2 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht
Referee: Andy Wolff
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Jong Utrecht 3-2 Dordrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Jong Utrecht, 25% draw, 25% Dordrecht — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong Utrecht at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Yousri Sbaiassist: Massien Ghaddari
3'
⚽Jaygo van Ommerenassist: Massien Ghaddari
11'
⚽Jaygo van Ommeren
17'
42'
⚽Robin van Astenassist: A. Ouarghi
45'
🔁Martin Vetkalout: Adil Lechkar
45'
🔁Lorenzo Riccioout: Senne Vugts
🔁Wessel Kooyout: Richie Omorowa
60'
🔁Emmanuel Chigozie Owenout: tijn boggende den
60'
🔁Noël Beulensout: Noa Malik Dundas
60'
65'
🔁Lucas Gardenierout: Ilias Azaouagh
65'
🔁Jurre van Akenout: Siginho Gerardo
Bjorn Menzo
70'
Bjorn Menzo
70'
73'
⚽Viggo Plantinga (OG)
🔁Massien Ghaddariout: Thomas Reinders
75'
85'
🔁A. Ouarghiout: nicolas rossi
🔁Driss Laaouinaout: Kenji Goes
89'

Match stats — Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht

36%Possession64%
10Shots20
4On target5
5Corners7
0.8xG1.44

Goals against chances

Jong Utrecht3 from 0.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dordrecht2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 1K. GadellaaG
  • 2Yousri SbaiD
  • 3W. KooyD
  • 14F. PohlD
  • 5Viggo PlantingaD
  • 7Noël BeulensM
  • 6J. van OmmerenM
  • 8D. LaaouinaM
  • 9E. C. OwenF
  • 10Massien GhaddariF
  • 11Bjorn MenzoF
Substitutes
  • 31Justin EversenG
  • 17N. DundasM
  • 13A. AslaniM
  • 16Kenji GoesM
  • 19R. OmorowaF
  • 15Thomas ReindersD
  • 21L. RietveldM
  • 32M. TsankovG
  • 20Tijn den BoggendeF
Coach: Omar Rziki
Dordrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 28T. CoremansG
  • 22J. van AkenD
  • 4J. PinasD
  • 3S. HenderikxD
  • 23L. WoudenbergD
  • 51Lucas GardenierM
  • 6L. RiccioM
  • 18Robin van AstenM
  • 21M. VetkalM
  • 10A. OuarghiM
  • 9J. de BieF
Substitutes
  • 27Ilias AzaouaghF
  • 44B. HardleyD
  • 13Dean HogervorstG
  • 2A. LechkarD
  • 8Senne VugtsM
  • 11N. RossiM
  • 16L. RománF
  • 1Finn OldenstamG
  • 15Y. M'BembaD
Coach: Paul Nuijten

Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
  • L1-2Roda19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026

Dordrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Jong Utrecht143292334-1111
19Dordrecht153391936-1712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht

  • 20 March 2026Jong Utrecht 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 28 November 2025Dordrecht 1–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 2 May 2025Jong Utrecht 1–0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 25 October 2024Dordrecht 3–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 10 May 2024Jong Utrecht 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 15 September 2023Dordrecht 3–3 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Dordrecht

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 3–2. The model had made a win for Jong Utrecht its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yousri Sbai 3' for Jong Utrecht, Jaygo van Ommeren 11' for Jong Utrecht, Jaygo van Ommeren 17' for Jong Utrecht, Robin van Asten 42' for Dordrecht, Viggo Plantinga (own goal) 73' for Dordrecht. Sent off: Bjorn Menzo (Jong Utrecht) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.80–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong Utrecht a 54.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.1% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 63.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 5 points lower than before the match.

For Dordrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.4% going in: 45.8% after a win, 55.5% after a draw, 61.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.3%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong Utrecht v Dordrecht has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Jong Utrecht's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Jong Utrecht win50%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Dordrecht win25%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.