Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Hamburger SV, 24% draw, 51% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
VfB Stuttgart at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 17W. OmariD
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 4B. NadirM
- 28M. MuheimM
- 37L. LemkeM
- 20Fábio VieiraF
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 7Z. El OuahdiD
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 43S. NandjaD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 12S. TangvikG
- 41D. SeimenG
- 4J. VagnomanD
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 3R. HendriksD
- 16A. KarazorM
- 6A. StillerM
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 26D. UndavM
- 18J. LewelingM
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 22L. AssignonD
- 1F. BredlowG
- 10C. FührichM
- 14L. JaquezD
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 21G. PrömelM
- 44L. SauerF
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 20L. StergiouD
Form going into Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
- 12 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 30 November 2025Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 5 June 2023Hamburger SV 1–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 1 June 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 August 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
- 28 May 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for VfB Stuttgart at 51% and given a win for Hamburger SV 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Miro Muheim 88' for Hamburger SV. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.71.
How the call on Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 26% / 26% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 25% / 24% / 51%: the biggest move is VfB Stuttgart's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Hamburger SV win25%▼ −1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- VfB Stuttgart win51%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.