17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Arena, Munich
Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Bayern München 6-1 RB Leipzig.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Bayern München, 21% draw, 22% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bayern München99%Draw1%RB Leipzig0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Luis Díazassist: Joshua Kimmich
12'
⚽Aleksandar Pavlovićassist: Luis Díaz
26'
⚽Michael Oliseassist: Harry Kane
34'
45'
🔁Ezechiel Banzuziout: Nicolas Seiwald
45'
🔁Christopher Nkunkuout: Tidiam Gomis
⚽Luis Díazassist: Harry Kane
47'
Konrad Laimer
51'
⚽Harry Kaneassist: Nathaniel Brown
52'
🔁Aleksandar Pavlovićout: Tom Bischof
59'
🔁Konrad Laimerout: Josip Stanišić
59'
🔁Harry Kaneout: Lennart Karl
59'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Serge Gnabry
59'
59'
🔁Lukas Klostermannout: Benjamin Henrichs
60'
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
⚽Luis Díazassist: Michael Olise
69'
71'
🔁Rocco Reitzout: Andrija Maksimović
🔁Kim Min-Jaeout: Sacha Boey
77'
90+1'
⚽Andrija Maksimovićassist: Brajan Gruda

Match stats — Bayern München vs RB Leipzig

62%Possession38%
29Shots12
17On target4
11Corners3
3.84xG0.9

Goals against chances

Bayern München6 from 3.84 xGmore than the chances were worth
RB Leipzig1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 27K. LaimerD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 14L. DíazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 23S. BoeyD
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 4J. TahD
  • 26S. UlreichG
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 7S. GnabryF
  • 8T. BischofM
Coach: V. Kompany
RB Leipzig 4-5-1
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
  • 16L. KlostermannD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 10B. GrudaM
  • 20R. ReitzM
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 7A. NusaM
  • 28C. NkunkuF
Substitutes
  • 3M. EstèveD
  • 35Max FinkgräfeD
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 40RômuloF
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 27T. GomisF
Coach: M. Demichelis

Form going into Bayern München vs RB Leipzig

Bayern München

Bundesliga

  • D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026

RB Leipzig

Bundesliga

  • W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bayern München9630299+2021
4RB Leipzig96032713+1418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig

  • 15 August 2026Bayern München 3–1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 February 2026Bayern München 2–0 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
  • 17 January 2026RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 22 August 2025Bayern München 6–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • 3 May 2025RB Leipzig 3–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 20 December 2024Bayern München 5–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga

The full Bayern München vs RB Leipzig record →

Leading scorers: Bayern München and RB Leipzig

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise63
  • H. Kane48
  • L. Díaz41

RB Leipzig

GoalsAssists

  • C. Nkunku52
  • Rômulo50
  • A. Nusa47

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayern München beat RB Leipzig 6–1. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Luis Díaz 12' for Bayern München, Aleksandar Pavlović 26' for Bayern München, Michael Olise 34' for Bayern München, Luis Díaz 47' for Bayern München, Harry Kane 52' for Bayern München, Luis Díaz 69' for Bayern München, Andrija Maksimović 90+1' for RB Leipzig. On expected goals it finished 3.84–0.90.

How the call on Bayern München v RB Leipzig has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 56% / 23% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 21% / 22%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Bayern München win57%▲ +1
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. RB Leipzig win22%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.