17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga prediction & result

Berlin
Referee: Daniel Schlager, Germany
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Union Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Union Berlin, 21% draw, 64% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 6.67, 4.76 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borussia Dortmund at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Berlin2%Draw91%Borussia Dortmund7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Ethan Nwaneri
7'
Waldemar Anton
14'
Serhou Guirassy
Janik Haberer
33'
Tom Rothe
35'
🔁Kastriot Imeriout: Emmanuel Latte Lath
45'
62'
🔁Maximilian Beierout: Konstantinos Karetsas
62'
🔁Ethan Nwaneriout: Fábio Silva
Tim Skarke
63'
🔁Tim Skarkeout: Mekhi Gray
70'
70'
🔁Konstantinos Karetsasout: Mathis Albert
🔁Janik Habererout: Christopher Trimmel
76'
🔁András Schäferout: Aljoscha Kemlein
76'
🔁Woo-Yeong Jeongout: Linus Güther
90+3'

Match stats — Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

38%Possession62%
11Shots12
0On target2
5Corners5
0.9xG1.42

Goals against chances

Union Berlin0 from 0.90 xGless than the chances were worth
Borussia Dortmund0 from 1.42 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. RønnowG
  • 19J. HabererD
  • 4Z. Van Den BoschD
  • 2F. UduokhaiD
  • 15T. RotheD
  • 20M. AebischerM
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 8R. KhediraM
  • 11Jeong Woo-YeongF
  • 30K. ImeriM
  • 21T. SkarkeF
Substitutes
  • 49Linus GutherF
  • 6A. KemleinM
  • 17D. KöhnD
  • 29E. Latte LathF
  • 32M. GrayF
  • 27M. LjubičićF
  • 14L. QuerfeldD
  • 31M. RaabG
  • 28C. TrimmelD
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  • 26J. RyersonM
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 14M. BeierM
  • 9S. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 41M. AlbertF
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 36Kauã PratesD
  • 20M. SabitzerM
  • 21Fábio SilvaF
  • 25J. VeermanM
Coach: N. Kovač

Form going into Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin

Bundesliga

  • W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026

Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga

  • D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union Berlin9144721-147
2Borussia Dortmund9630167+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

  • 24 January 2026Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 31 August 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 22 February 2025Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 5 October 2024Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 2 March 2024Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 7 October 2023Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Union BerlinBundesliga

The full Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund record →

Leading scorers: Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • F. Nmecha40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Borussia Dortmund at 64% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.90–1.42.

How the call on Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 17% / 23% / 60% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 15% / 21% / 64%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Union Berlin win15%▼ −2
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. Borussia Dortmund win64%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.