9 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Spartak Moscow, 26% draw, 49% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Krasnodar at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow0%Draw3%FC Krasnodar97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Ugaldeassist: Marquinhos
2'
5'
⚽L. Olazaassist: Douglas Augusto
10'
⚽Joao Batxiassist: N. Krivtsov
21'
Aleksandr Chernikov
🔁E. Barcoout: C. Martins
46'
66'
🔁A. Chernikovout: K. Lenini
🔁S. Babicout: M. Daku
68'
🔁M. Ugaldeout: D. Prutsev
75'
76'
Ilya Vakhaniya
Gedson Fernandes
79'
83'
🔁D. Vorobyevout: M. Ozdoev
🔁R. Zobninout: I. Dmitriev
84'
86'
🔁Christianout: V. Paltsev
90+4'
Jubal

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar

62%Possession38%
11Shots16
3On target4
6Corners7

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 83G. FernandesD
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 6S. BabicD
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 68R. LitvinovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 35C. MartinsM
  • 33V. ParadaD
  • 27I. DmitrievM
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 97D. DenisovD
Coach: Carlos Carcedo Juan
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 3V. TormenaD
  • 5Jubal JuniorD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 8Douglas AugustoM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 88N. KrivtsovM
  • 11Joao BatxiM
  • 10D. VorobyevF
Substitutes
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 6K. LeniniM
  • 4Diego CostaD
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 59A. KhmarinD
  • 67K. MukailovF
Coach: Murad Musaev

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Spartak Moscow9612167+919
1FC Krasnodar9630147+721

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar

  • 9 August 2026Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 24 May 2026Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC KrasnodarCup
  • 23 April 2026Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 2 November 2025FC Krasnodar 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 30 January 2025Spartak Moscow 3–2 FC KrasnodarFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 December 2024FC Krasnodar 0–3 Spartak MoscowPremier League

Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar

Spartak Moscow

  • M. Ugalde3 goals

FC Krasnodar

  • N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
  • Jubal3 goals
  • Christian2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.