9 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Zenit vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result

Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Zenit 1-2 Rodina Moskva.

Before kick-off the model made it 77% Zenit, 13% draw, 10% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.30, 7.69 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zenit at 77% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zenit1%Draw9%Rodina Moskva90%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Glushenkov
23'
Wendel
30'
41'
Dmitriy Tananeev
46'
🔁M. Abdusalamovout: S. Bakaev
46'
🔁I. Timoshenkoout: A. Gharibyan
49'
🔁R. Fishchenkoout: L. Musaev
59'
⚽A. Gharibyanassist: S. Bessmertniy
63'
•Artem Maksimenko
🔁Felipe Augustoout: Luiz Henrique
63'
65'
⚽A. Gharibyanassist: S. Bakaev
74'
🔁I. Pozoout: A. Egorychev
🔁Gustavo Mantuanout: A. Erokhin
77'
🔁W. Barriosout: Douglas Santos
77'
84'
🔁A. Maksimenkoout: B. Mansilla
🔁Ninoout: N. Alip
87'
🔁Wendelout: K. Andrade
87'

Match stats — Zenit vs Rodina Moskva

66%Possession34%
21Shots7
6On target3
11Corners3

Line-ups

Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 78I. DiveevD
  • 33NinoD
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 8WendelM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 9Felipe AugustoM
  • 20PedrinhoM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 71D. OdoevskiyG
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 21A. ErokhinM
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 6V. DrkusicD
  • 17A. MostovoyM
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 15V. KaravaevD
Coach: Sergey Semak
Rodina Moskva 4-4-2
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 80S. BessmertniyD
  • 19D. TananeevD
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 18M. AbdusalamovM
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 8I. PozoM
  • 9A. MaksimenkoM
  • 99I. TimoshenkoF
  • 10Y. ReynaF
Substitutes
  • 71I. SvinovG
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 72A. GordyushenkoM
  • 11B. MansillaF
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 55M. KrizanD
  • 17S. BakaevM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 95K. CissokoF
Coach: Juan Diaz

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Zenit9603199+1018
15Rodina Moskva91261022-125

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zenit vs Rodina Moskva

  • 9 August 2026Zenit 1–2 Rodina MoskvaPremier League

Leading scorers: Zenit and Rodina Moskva

Zenit

  • A. Sobolev7 goals2 assists
  • M. Glushenkov6 goals2 assists

Rodina Moskva

  • A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.