New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% New York City FC, 27% draw, 24% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York City FC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 88M. JonesF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 55K. ParksM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 9B. TraoréF
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 14M. AmaroM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 36B. EmboloF
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 48C. SanchezM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 16Adrian GillM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 3E. BáezD
- 7S. AlzateM
Form going into New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
New York City FC
Major League Soccer
- D2-2away to Orlando City SC24 October 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles FC17 October 2026
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer
- L2-3Chicago Fire24 October 2026
- L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
- 26 September 2026Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2025New York City FC 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 March 2025Atlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2024New York City FC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 June 2023Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Atlanta United FC
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC 2–1. The model had made a win for New York City FC its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nicolás Fernández Mercau 70' for New York City FC, Breel Embolo 88' for Atlanta United FC, Bénie Adama Traoré 90+5' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 1.20–2.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York City FC a 23.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 37.0% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.0%, 13.5 points higher than before the match.
For Atlanta United FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 94.3% going in: 81.9% after a win, 96.9% after a draw, 99.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.3%, 5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.